Situation Room Chat About Prop 8

CNN contributors Hilary Rosen and Alex Castellanos provide brief analysis of the fight in California over Proposition 8.

Hilary Rosen does an excellent job of framing the argument against Prop 8: it would be the first time that a constitution would be amended to take rights away from people. Alex Castellanos, commenting on support of the NO position by both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Barack Obama, thinks "this is a different year" than 2000, when 61% of Californians voted that marriage is between one man and one woman.

That March 2000 vote on Proposition 22, of course, occurred when there was still a contested GOP presidential primary to drive Republicans to the polls, while Al Gore had sewn up the Democratic party nomination, possibly depressing turnout by more progressive, gay-friendly voters.

Nevertheless, the 61% YES vote far exceeded late polling that showed Prop 22 passing with only 53% of the vote.

Will Prop 8 face the same fate? Will there be a "gay Bradley effect:" Californians afraid to appear bigoted to pollsters, but possibly swayed by Prop 8 lies and misinformation in the privacy of the voting booth?

This campaign is neck-and-neck right now.
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{h/t glaadblog}