Such a small thing to have so many unintended consequences. All those reassurances by Hoshyar Zebari that SOFA would ensure that Iraki soil would not and could not be used by America to attack Irak’s neighbours are now exposed as the pack of lies that anybody with an iota of realism and common sense knew them to be. That is by no means the least of the consequences of what increasingly looks to have been a severely botched SOF operation launched on the basis of bad intelligence with reckless disregard for civilian casualties and the strategic consequences. There has been a lot of feverish speculation, (much of it genuinely hilarious), as to why now? why there? and cui bono? None of this speculation interests me as none of it addresses the main point which is that even if, for a wonder, the people killed by the American raiders were takfiris any short-term tactical gain in killing them is massively outweighed by the negative political effects.
What negative political effects?
First all those reassurances, such as this one dating back to June 22nd 2008 by Green Zone Government spokesmen and ministers that Iraki soil would not be used to launch attacks on other countries are now shown up to be lies. Yes, yes, everyone knew they were lies, that’s not the point. The point is that the Americans have just blown to pieces the figleaf fiction that the SOFA is a purely bilateral matter. Now that they have done that The Arab league, Irak’s neighbours, and last but not least the Iranians, all now have the locus standi to demand input.
- In the case of the Iranians they can, and will, ramp up the pressure both on the Badr Organisation and on SIIC proper to oppose SOFA.
- Expect similar pressure on Dawa.
The USA has just further destabilised the internal Iraki scene and invited every regional actor to give the Iraki political pot a good hefty stir. You can be sure that invitation will be taken up.
markfromireland
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Thank you, Mark. Dugg and recommended.
Thanks so much, Mark. Isn’t stirring the pot, the real U.S. objective?
dugg
Yes
I’ve linked to you from my site, Mark, as well as Relaxed Politics. Hope this helps spread your post far and wide. Best always to you and yours. L.
I would make the point that the current denizens of the White House also had some domestic political considerations in mind (perhaps even foremost in their minds).
Such as this comment I’ve just made over at Pat Lang’s Sic Semper Tyrannis blog (and not yet out of moderation):
wow, thank you for the post.
Good evening, Mark, most excellent to ’see’ you.
How shall Irak respond to the most recent effort of America to blackmail them into accepting the American military presence by suggesting that if
Irak will not sign of on the ‘agreement’, then the US military will shut down vital services?
Zebari has been wrong on just about everything! Aloha, Mark! How’re the ‘beasts’ doing?
(((laura)))
Thanks for your post Mark. What a mess. The only bright spot is that this criminal administration will soon be history. We can try to go forward from there.
Sort of like the pinnacle of Stevens getting convicted….W has to play another hand to do a completely tragic screw up.
What happened to International borders? Oh yeah we are talking about the U.S. Is this a message to Iran? You could be next.
Aljazeera reports about the U.S. attack in Syria
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZzRAmgaSqg
Dana Perino refused to answer any questions about the attack
U.S. State Department refuses to comment on deadly attack in Syria
The spokeswoman (Dana Perino), during the daily press conference, rarely used “I can’t comment on it at all,” “I’m not going to comment in any way,” “I don’t know, I don’t know,” “all I can tell you is that I am not able to comment on reports about this reported incident” to answer reporters’ questions on the attack.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl…..262913.htm
reply
How many countries has the Bush administration attacked or invaded since the fall of 2001. Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria. Israel invaded Lebanon.
And, remember….he is the one who ran on an “humble foreign policy.” Candidates should have criminal consequences for such lies.
And those are only the ones publicly known. I would probably add Ethopia, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Uzbekistan, perhaps Tajikistan and other “stans”.
And don’t even ask about South and Central America.
Question. How does this play with the talks going on in London(?) between Syria and the British gov? Or is it just interesting timing?
Two and a half months before the clown car leaves the White House!
Bush is doing what he can to assure a long term presence in the Middle East
actually, he seems to be doing whatever he can to ensure that the Middle East is plunged into complete and utter chaos.
Exactly, so he, Dickie, and the rest of the war profiteers can make loads of money through the MIC. Moneylaundering and war profiteering is all these asswipes know.
I believe it was Bmaz who said “Bush and Cheney deserve fair trials”
‘Fair’ like the one Saddam received…?
…followed by life sentences.
There’s a nice little jail in Cuba I’d like to send them to!
Iraq already is in chaos ,why not go for broke?
*
Bush needs a game changer a Wag the Dog to take people’s minds off the economy he needs the Iraq war to go hot now so if Obama withdraws troops it looks to America like we are getting forced out.
I don’t expect it to work if anything it will make America want to get the troops out sooner but it will inflame the 30%ers
I hope Iraq and Iran realize that this is another dumb Bush ploy.
Bush plays games with Iraqi lives, he plays games with our troops lives.
I’d rather that particular jail be shut down. But Marion or that underground supermax prison in Florence, CO sound like good alternatives to me.
Dugg, thanks for the link.
ALL crimminals deserve fair trials, though, as you suggest, not all get them.
For Bush and Cheney, it need not be on American soil.
However, for many reasons, it were better should that BE the case.
Obama has said he will meet with Iran I hope he does.
“Bush plays games with Iraqi lives, he plays games with our troops lives.”
He’s playing games with all our lives!
Close down all but a handful of cells,leave a couple for Bush + Co!
Expect after the election for Bush to really play tough he will have nothing to lose and the new Congress and President won’t be in power yet.
If Bush is attacking Syria now whats next?
watertiger up at the mothership
perhaps he’s trying to unify the entire region against us ;-P
OT: Per Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:
Good on you Mark, in pointing out the most important negative impact of the incursion (nobody I’ve seen has mentioned this). That it proves again that the U.S. has no intention of honoring Iraqi sovereignty – as if they needed yet another example. Bye bye SOFA for good.
Operation Fuck Obama With a Chainsaw is under way.
Bush is leaving the Whitehouse like the Russians retreat in war.
Burn it to the fucking ground.
-G
“US commanders say Syria is the main transit point for foreign jihadists crossing into Iraq and have blamed Damascus for turning a blind eye to the problem.”
SO, LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT. IT’S SYRIA, NOT IRAN. IT’S NOT IRAN BUT RATHER SYRIA THAT IS THE PROBLEM. THE “JIHADISTS” ARE COMING FROM SYRIA, NOT IRAN. SO SYRIA IS THE PROBLEM, NOT IRAN. RIGHT? RIGHT? RIGHT?
~~~ModNote: Please turn your caps-lock key off. This is difficult to read, and is considered shouting. Thanks.~~~
We have always been at war with Eastasia and Syria.
-G
Well rewind back to 1990’s Dr. Bernard Lewis Princeton historian and middle east neocon adviser. His strategy is to keep me divided into warring tribal units that destabilize the region. No centralized governments.
Aside the regional arms sales bizzarres are doing very well.
Eeek this is what comes of deciding that the ever increasing flakiness of the connection I posted from coupled with the lateness of the hour meant I could head for my matress. I’ll try belatedly to answer the main points:
Reply: DWBartoo October 27th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Irak and the green zone government are not synonymous. The only people who want the US to stay are the Kurds. I’m not at all sure that Odierno’s bluff won’t be called. I keep on saying this and people keep on not getting it. You have no idea the depth of loathing for America that now exists in Irak.
Little noticed in all of the weekend hubbub was this article in the London Times in which Maliki described supporting the SOFA as “Political suicide” (link is is here: Deal on American presence in Iraq close to collapse) We covered it in both Arabic and English AFAIK we’re the only ones who did.
It’s suicide because of how loathed the USA now is in Irak. That’s not important to Zebari who remains what he always has been – a separatist Kurd. It’s very important to Maliki who is an Arab.
Moreover for strategic reasons I don’t believe a word of Odierno’s nonsnensical little hissy fit. (See below)
Reply: jackie October 27th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
I don’t think there’s any connection. Even if there were this administration has repeatedly shown that it believes in the use of force and the use of force only.
Reply to: various points about American domestic politics and American long-term regional presence:
Since Carter’s time, (I’m referring specifically to the Carter Doctrine) the US has focussed relelntlessly on maintaining a sufficient presence in the Gulf to dominate it.
Everything I’ve read about the presumptive next president’s policies lead me to believe that he considers the SOFA to be even more important than the current administration. All you have to do is look at his policy advisers to see that therer’ll be no substantive change.
Whatever is said for short term political gain is in my view irrelevant. What’s relevant from my POV is that at present the only game in town is those bases in Irak. (The Saudis have absolutely no intention of inviting the US army back on to their soil. They’ve no intention of doing that because, well if you’re a Saudi prince or princeling life is pretty good and you’d rather it remain so. Inviting the US back would be a grrrrrrrrreat way of ensuring that what remained of your life would be short and … … … not good.)
Reply: ThingsComeUndone October 27th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
It is long past time that the USA admitted that Iran is an important regional power with legitimate interests. They’re going to be there long after the U.S. is gone. Any realistic acknowledgement of that would be more than welcome.
Hopefully the above dealt with the main points people wanted covered.
mfi
Very helpful post – and even more in notes. Thanks mfi!
Last night Turner Classic Movies played the old Carole Lombard-Jack Benny comedy “To Be or Not to Be”. The movie stands up quite well. At the end the Polish resisters dressed like German troops get in a Germ
an plane. One of the resisters looks like Hitler. He orders the pilots to jump out of the plane (sans parachutes). They say “Heil Hitler” and jump.
In a sense that’s what our military is doing, saying “Heil Bush” and jumping. It would seem that there has been more than enough to be enough and that the unconstitutionality of the enterprise of invading Syria should be enough for the helicopter pilots to call “illegal order”. Could it be they didn’t know they were flying into Syria? What is the matter with our military? Would they enforce a declaration of martial law?
Scary
One of the reasons why conservatives* of a military background such as myself can and do regularly run rings around people like you is this sort of loosemouthed nonsense.
Explain please how a territorial infringement constitutes an “invasion”.
Once you have done that kindly explain the quoted extract of your comment above with reference to the precise articles of the constitution of the United States of America that apply. You should support your statement above with reference to case law. And yes there is indeed a rather substantial body of case law so you shouldn’t have too much trouble finding it.
Kindly define the term “illegal order” explain how it applies here. Quote please the precise terms of the order received by the pilots that were illegal. Once you have done I would be quite interested to read how an illegal order may be distinguished from an unconstitutional one.
No. Get a grip.
They have been betrayed to a quite remarkably sinister extreme right wing government by … why by people like the readership of this site … all those nice liberal people who wouldn’t be caught dead in uniform because “people like us” don’t do that sort of job.
If it appeared on the face of it to be a legally valid order – yes of course they would.
mfi
sheeeeesh
Then they wonder why their military is a fucked up mess and why many of their military despise them …..
* Granted I’m a European conservative which puts me well to the left of many so-called “leftists” and “liberals” or what passes for “leftism” and “liberalism” in the American polity.