Predictions would be far above this firedog’s paygrade. This diary is meant for those interested in just getting up to speed in the Senate Races
Currently at 51 Seats which include Bernie Sanders (VT) and ugh, Lieberweasel.
Expected To Win:
VA. Mark Warner up by 32 over Jimmy Gilmore (John Warner’s seat)
OR. Jeff Merkley up by 7 over Incumbent Gordon Smith
CO. Udall up by 10 over Bob ‘I love Abramoff’ Schaffer (RNC pulled cash from state)
NM. Udall up 19 over Steve Pearce
NH. Jean Shaheen up by 10 over Incumbent John Sununu
Closer, but Expected Dem Wins
NC. Kay Hagen currently up 3 over Incumbent Liddy Dole
AK. Mark Begich currently up 2 over Incumbent Toobz (post conviction polling will tell us more by the end of this week – teehee)
Wins in the above races gets us to 58
Now the nailbiting begins . . .
MN. Al Franken up 3 over Incumbent Norm Coleman (dfh’s love Franken’s ‘trending’ numbers)
GA. Saxby Chambliss up by 2 over challenger Jim Martin (MOE is 4 pts)
KY. Mitch McConnell up by 3 over challenger Bruce Lunsford (MOE is 4 pts)
MS. Dem challenger Ronnie Musgrove behind 3 of Repub Roger Wicker (MOE 3 pts) for Trent Lott’s old seat
Two More Possibilities:
ME. Incumbent Susan Collins up 12 over challenger Tom Allen (MOE 4pts) some still think Congressman Allen can ride an Obama tidal wave
TX. Incumbent John Cornyn up 10 over challenger Rick Noriega (MOE 4 pts) many think Cornyn could suffer incumbent fatigue – wouldn’t even be a race if DSCC had done the right thing)
The smart kids (538/kos) say we should get two more out of the "nailbiters"….giving us the Magic 60
Taking three of them would relegate Lieberweasel to the remnants bin
A mere 180 hours to go.
Stay Tuned
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I’ll go with Franken, have a hard time believing the other Dem nail-biters will win. (Hope I’m wrong!)
And – congratulations on your first post!
oh thank you MayDaze. again, it was written to help out those too busy with other races,or life it’s own self to keep up with all the numbers flyin around at this stage
Well done, thank you CBL.
thanks for the update, cbl
Uh, one correction – I think it is Bob Schaffer in Colorado, not Don.
fixed. thanks dahlin’ !
Thanks cbl2.
digg
Seconded.
I think we will get 60 without Joe.
LMAO.
In Georgia and Mississippi an expanded African American turnout could actually push either of those two up.
And if the Clintons head down to Texas they might be able to inspire some more Texanos out to the polls!
I still wouldn’t put NC in expected. A lot can happen in that race.
I’m also wondering if the effects of the internal party schism on folks like Collins and Snowe may actually make them more likely to break from their caucus. Sounds as if the extremist Republicans are going to make Palin their ostensible party leader…and a litmus test for those they feel are RINO’s.
The moderates may feel the need to coalesce in order to bring “rationality” to the party. They will not accept the whipping. So on many issues they may jump to the Democrats, especially if they can get some imput in legislation.
Please DEAR GOD don’t let Lieberman be 60. 57, 61 — but not 60.
One twist to keep your eye on in the race in Georgia–and it’s all about turnout (which is off the wall this week as to early voting demography–and *seems to be favorable to Martin). There are 3 people in the race–a libertarian who may be able to pull 2-3% from Chambliss.
About 1,206,891 early votes had been cast in Georgia by the end of yesterday, 51men-56% women.
African Americans have totalled about 39% of the early voters in Georgia. They make up 29% of registered voters and in 2004 cast 25% of total votes.
Early voting lines today are 2-3 hours on average, with some spots actually 4-8 hours yesterday! In some places though voting took 45 minutes. There are 15 workers per poll in the largest Georgia county–Fulton where Atlanta is. In many counties voters lined up before 6:00AM, and by 8AM there were between 100-200 people in line.
Yesterday, the computer went down 6 times which delayed checkin considerably, and some poll workers lacked keys to machines (I know–a Palinesque move but it didn’t happen to day).
Georgia is the only state that requires the Senate candidate to win by 50% +1 so chances are increased for a runoff. If a runoff occurs, it would happen Dec. 1 and would bring President Elect Obama into Georgia with a lot on the line., and it is also drawing a lot of “national money.” When the race in Georgia started, Chambliss had about 6 million and Martin had $30,000 or so.
Runoff Scenario in Georgia Senate Race