Sunday, the Iraqi Cabinet approved the SOFA by a vote of 27-1 of the Cabinet members in attendance. A surprisingly lop-sided vote tally to be sure. However, consider this…

Iraq’s political leaders held a high-level meeting on Saturday to gauge support for a security agreement that will determine the future role and presence of American forces in Iraq before crucial votes in the cabinet and Parliament.

But the most powerful Shiite bloc in Parliament, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, did not attend, and the meeting ended without any clear public resolution.[...]

The unexpected no-show of the Supreme Council, a close ally of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, was confirmed by two Iraqi lawmakers, one of whom attended the meeting. Other lawmakers expressed concern and said they were puzzled by what it meant.

The meeting follows months of contentious political maneuvering by many of Iraq’s political factions, amid a political climate in which many Iraqi leaders are trying to demonstrate their nationalist credentials by insisting on major concessions from the Americans.

Mr. Maliki is not expected not send the pact to Parliament until he is sure that he has the votes to pass it.

The decision of Iraq’s 37-member cabinet, essentially a microcosm of the Parliament, is expected to be a good indicator of whether the agreement will pass. The assembly has not yet announced the date of its vote, but it is scheduled to go into recess on Nov. 24.

The cabinet is made up of 37 members and the the fact that ISCI boycotted the meeting raises some serious concerns about its prospects in Parliament, interestingly, a Cabinet member tried to spin the ISCI boycott as they were ‘traveling’…

From McClatchy…

Iraq’s cabinet on Sunday approved a security pact that sets a timetable for the nearly complete withdrawal of American forces within three years, but the agreement faces an uncertain outlook in Iraq’s parliament.

The largest Sunni party in Iraq, the Iraqi Islamic Party, wants the agreement to go to a nationwide referendum. Its affiliated parties complain that their efforts to amend the plan to require the release of detainees and to provide compensation for war victims were ignored by lawmakers who shaped the pact.

Followers of anti-American cleric Muqtada al Sadr, meanwhile, view the agreement as an affirmation of the American occupation and oppose it outright.

Their dissent colors broad political momentum Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki built through the weekend after he reportedly gained new concessions from the American government. It won support from 27 of the 28 cabinet members. Nine members did not vote because they were traveling, a cabinet minister said.

It seems that both the Sunnis and Shiite blocs are divided on the issue… Also from the McClatchy article…

Despite the approval by the Iraqi cabinet, a battle awaits inside the 275-member parliament.

Hadi al Ameri, a leading Shiite lawmaker, said the only way the agreement could pass was with consensus among the major political blocs.

But Iraqi Sunnis are divided on what to do.

Vice President Tariq al Hashimi’s party on Sunday was still calling to put the agreement before voters as a referendum. Nawal al Sammaraie, a member of his party and a state minister for women’s affairs, was the only cabinet minister who voted against the security pact.

"We are afraid that even if the agreement passes in parliament it could be (opposed) by Tariq al Hashimi," al Ameri said, speaking for a Shiite coalition called the United Iraqi Alliance. "The Americans put the ball in our field today. We gave it a strong kick and now the ball is in the field of the Americans and the Sunnis. We are waiting to see what they do."

The passage of the agreement by the cabinet with the approval of the Shiite alliance rebutted accusations that Shiite officials have caved to Iranian pressures by purposely stalling negotiations with the American government, he said. But without Sunni agreement they may go back to "square one."

"We don’t love the Americans. This is not for love of the presence of the American soldiers, we want to get rid of the Americans today, not tomorrow," he said. "But how to get rid of 150,000 American soldiers on this land? We believe this agreement is one of the ways to get rid of the Americans."

After nine months of intense negotiations, the focus turns to the Sunni Arabs who’ve largely remained in the background as Shiite officials criticized the proposed security agreement. The Iraqi Accordance Front, the Sunni bloc of parties, is splintered.

Rasheed al Aazawy, a Sunni lawmaker, waved his hands in dismissal when asked if the law could pass the parliament by the end of the year. Hashimi, the head of the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni vice president, called for a referendum on the agreement this month. The party also unsuccessfully demanded a line within the agreement for compensation of Iraqi victims of the Iraq war, Aazawy said.

"What the members of the government cannot do members of parliament can because they have greater freedom," he said. "It will be a bitter struggle inside the parliament. I do not believe that it will pass this year."

Ironically, Maliki has vowed to only submit it to Parliament if he had the votes to pass it… Initially, he said by a 2/3rd’s majority, now he seems to have backtracked to have it pass by a simple majority. Which will it be? Interestingly, Roads to Iraq raises a valid question…

This connection between Sistani’s position and the UIA approval is also confirmed by the Green Zone newspaper Al-Sabaah saying that the United Iraqi Alliance met yesterday to discuss the final position from SOFA. The newspaper said that the approval is based on three “positive” points:

– The change of the name of the security agreement.

– A timetable for the final withdrawal.

– An article in the agreement says “Iraq will not to be used as base to launch attacks on neighboring countries”.

It would be interesting to watch how the Iranian are going to take revenge from Al-Hakim in the near future.

I’d add Maliki into that equation… I’m sure the Iranians are extremely miffed at the Cabinet’s approval margin…!