Henry Paulson’s main claim to fame is getting just about everything wrong in his tenure as Treasury secretary. However, he now stands to gain lasting notoriety as the person who destroyed the domestic U.S. auto industry, and the economies of the Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana along with them.
The story is that the big three automakers are struggling with record sales declines. This collapse in car sales in turn is the fallout from the collapse of the Greenspan-Bernanke housing bubble. While the domestic automakers have been hit hardest, all manufacturers have seen sharp drops in sales. Toyota’s sales were down 23.0 percent compared with its year ago levels. Honda’s sales were down 25.2 percent, and Nissan’s sales fell 33.0 percent.
These huge plunges in year over year sales by the world’s top car manufacturers can’t be blamed on the industry. Responsibility for this plunge lies with Mr. Paulson and other economic policy makers, and their Wall Street friends.
The basic arithmetic is simple. General Motors saw its sales fall by 45 percent compared to its year ago levels. That means its revenue has been cut nearly in half. While it has made some reductions in employment and can ease back its production, there is no way it can reduce its expenses by the same amount. Many of its expenses, like interest costs, property taxes, and health insurance for retirees are largely fixed independent of short-term fluctuations in output.
As a result General Motors is now losing close to $2 billion a month. At this rate, it will burn through its capital in around 2 months and be forced into bankruptcy. Chrysler and Ford are in somewhat better shape, but the basic story is the same. Furthermore, the fallout from a GM bankruptcy could sink Chrysler and Ford as well, as common suppliers shut down and credit for the industry vanishes and customers flee to manufacturers with longer life expectancies.
There have been analysts, presumably including Henry Paulson, who think that bankruptcy is a reasonable solution for the auto industry. This is yet another of Mr. Paulson’s famous mistakes. (Remember, this guy missed the housing bubble completely, thought its impact would be small when it burst, didn’t see a problem with letting Lehman Brothers fail, and thought the TARP [RIP] was a good idea.)
Bankruptcy would allow GM, Ford and Chrysler to more quickly cut back their bloated dealer networks and adjust their car lines with current market demand, as its proponents claim. Bankruptcy would also void union contracts, which will thrill the millionaire bankers by forcing workers earning $57,000 a year to take pay cuts. And, all those lazy retirees will see the health care benefits that they worked for taken away.
That’s the good part. Realistically, bankruptcy is likely to kill all three manufacturers, taking down much of the region’s economy with them.
First, some folks may recall the credit crunch. Lenders are extremely reluctant to take risks. In the absence of government guarantees, it is unlikely that any banks will step forward to provide GM and the others the money they need to keep operating in bankruptcy. In other words, bankruptcy is very likely to mean a complete shutdown of the Big Three.
Let’s say that the anti-bailout crowd suddenly gets a soft spot and decides to guarantee loans to the firms operating under bankruptcy protection. There is still the problem of selling cars. Customers will be very reluctant to buy cars produced by a manufacturer in bankruptcy, since they won’t know if a dealer and supplier network will exist in 3 or 4 years so that they can get their car serviced and buy replacement parts.
While people don’t mind flying an airline in bankruptcy, buying a car is to some extent an investment in the company. Many fewer customers will be willing to invest in a bankrupt car company.
But let’s assume that the investment financing is arranged and that customers are still willing to come through the doors. The bankruptcy itself is still likely to be devastating to the economies of Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana, the three states where Big Three employment is concentrated.
Bankruptcy protects the firm from its creditors. The creditors of these firms are thousands of suppliers who are heavily concentrated in the same states. In most cases, the Big Three manufacturers were their major customers. These suppliers have already been squeezed by falling demand and lower product prices. If they cannot collect the money owed them by the Big Three, there will be a whole chain of secondary bankruptcies.
The impact in these states is potentially huge. According to the Center for Automotive Research, auto related employment accounts for almost 7 percent of total employment in Michigan, 6 percent in Indiana, and 5 percent in Ohio. Losing 7 percent of total employment in Michigan would be equivalent to losing more than 9 million jobs nationwide.
That is Mr. Paulson’s latest plan for the auto industry and these three states. This will be quite a legacy.
There is one last point that should really gall just about everyone. Mr. Paulson has argued that he does not have the legal authority to use the money appropriated for TARP for bailing out the auto industry.
This claim is outrageous for two reasons. As many of us who opposed the TARP argued, it gave Paulson a virtual blank check, and that is pretty much how he has interpreted it, using the money to bail out a wide range of non-bank institutions.
The other reason why this is so galling is that this is an administration that has taken pride in claiming virtually unlimited powers in a wide range of areas, including the conduct of war and holding of prisoners without charges or trial. It would be incredible if they allow Detroit to sink because they claim that they don’t have the legal authority to save it.





104 Comments
Spotlight
Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About The Seminal
Advanced search
Please go to this site GM set up to contact your senators and congressmen to tell them to get this loan moving!
http://www.capitolconnect.com/…..fault.aspx
The congress and the Repugs so easily forget that the biggest problem with the auto industry is that they did not do any oversight on the financial industry for the last decade, and in fact, re-wrote the laws so they themselves could play casino with our economy. The auto industry has been able to weather many storms over the years, but, not this one. Now thanks to Bush and his cohorts, they have succeded in completely destroying the UAW, which was always in their game plan.
Excellent post. I agree that bankruptcy won’t work because it ignores conditions in the wider economy. I am also really not sure who would own the auto companies after a bankruptcy re-organization and that concerns me.
Thank you – I’ve been waiting for someone to do some sort of ‘call to action’ – that’s what the Pups do best.
This is a very important post.
If Democrats don’t stop acting like “it’s not my problem,” the ripples could impede everything they try to do once Obama does come into office.
What Democrats are most acting like that? Barney Frank? Others? Do we need to be making calls(even if they aren’t our Reps)?
Paulson can’t “sink Detroit.” It’s already sunk.
There is no “fix” for these auto manufacturers. Prior management colluded with Big Oil for decades to ensure the result we see today. Chrysler was touting “HEMI” at the peak of the housing bubble, while those who saw it coming were selling out of their real estate holdings and preparing for a new reality…recession/depression.
Not everyone was taken by surprise. Detroit has been so tone deaf, for so many years, on so many levels, it just doesn’t deserve to be rewarded.
They “sold forward” three to five years worth of cars in the 2006 timeframe with free money and insane rebates. That cheap money era would have been the time for the thoughtful executive leaders to plan for the inevitable dearth of sales that would result from their own insane efforts to put a brand new vehicle in every driveway in America, at 0% interest.
THEY CAUSED THEIR OWN DEMISE. I personally predicted all of this, and even considered a business model two years ago to create a national roll-up of towing companies to brand a national repossession company when the repo wave hit. This isn’t rocket science folks…it’s just action + reaction.
Read this article and tell me how saving manufacturers in order to ensure that more cars can be built is going to fix THIS problem:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11…..38;emc=rss
jeffery sachs testified to barney frank’s committee yesterday that if gm were allowed to fail it could very well send us into a depression. do the dems in congress have any reason to dismiss this concern?
Great post!
Wondering if you could address the following, since I have seen it parroted everywhere – why is deflation in the short term a bad thing for regular people?
I can see deflation being a problem in the long term because it creates the downward cycle that is described in the EM ES EM, but I can’t see how, if gas prices, and hence transportation costs and say, my gas and electric bill, go down how that hurts ordinary people as they have more in their pocket to spend.
Part of the underlying problem of the current crisis, if I read you correctly over the years, is that the real median income has not gone up in at least 35 years in the US and that therefore people have less discretionary income.
Thanks in advance for your insight.
We are already in/headed for a depression. The real question is how deep.
OT: TMP is reporting that Waxman beat out Dingle for chairmanship.
yep. 137 to 122
We’re going into a deep depression irrespective of what Senators or Congressman or Detroit or Obama do, or don’t do.
It’s broken. They broke it on purpose. There is no fix.
Lest I seem too harsh, I’m actually not happy at all about it. I’ve been predicting it at the top of my voice for four-plus years. Nobody wanted to hear it then, and they still don’t.
There is no fix. This problem has been created by the Federal Reserve ever since the last Great Depression. They’ve inflated us to this position, at this point in time, on purpose.
http://londonbanker.blogspot.c…..great.html
The banksters on the right side of the trade are becoming exceptionally wealthy. Power is being consolidated in very few hands on a global basis.
The New World Order is at hand.
When you see them install their IMF/CFR/FED bankster, Tim Geithner, as Obama’s Treasury Secretary, you’ll know for certain that they have won.
OK, this is all well and good that the business leaders in the auto industry have failed us. I would say that this partially has to do with the fact that we have had a laissez-faire attitude towards business that has harmed the nation in general.
In the meantime, however, we have millions of regular people who will not have a regular job very soon. As Professor Krugman has stated, while we are in recession, it is not in our interest to let these jobs go to waste. I posit to you that the government should assist in easing the auto-industry to allow structured investment in new technologies so that there can be a “soft” landing.
I do not advocate just handing over $25 bill to the CEOs and say have at it, like we have done with the financial industry. On the other hand, there is no reason that we cannot have targeted investment that takes care of the American economy as a whole.
This whole fiasco is an ideological struggle about breaking the labor movement once and for all. We, as progressives need to keep that in mind and not allow our disgust at corporate greed, which is absolutely justified, to act as the proverbial elephant in the china shop.
fyi – a couple of clips of sachs i ripped from yesterday’s house committee hearing (the quality is limited by the committee feed):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG-tGV41KFc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2O3GZeSJ4U
apologies to those on dial up – both of these are too large (>10MB) to view.
As a recently retired Chrysler worker here in St. Louis, I can speak volumes to the woes of the auto industry and the auto workers. I lived through the Iaccoca era as well as the recent(false) merger with Daimler.
Naturally I’m in favor of the bridge loan, but I’m hopeful that there will be strings attached that will protect the worker and discourage further outsourcing. We all here know that the republicans for decades have been stacking the deck against the worker and the middle class…
I could on and on but I think of primary importance now is to bring enormous pressure to bear on each and every damn blue dog democrat! We have the momentum.
Because it doesn’t matter if everything is cheaper on a relative basis (from previously inflated levels) if you have no income because you lost your job because whatever you used to do for a living (think Realtor) became irrelevant, as the expectation of lower prices causes people to simply wait to make purchases on all but essential items (staples).
As with today’s Real Estate market, absent “urgency to buy,” in the face of declining prices, there is never a perfect day to pull the trigger. Why purchase depreciating assets? Why not wait to buy, or rent them as-needed?
OT kinda, not really – small business loan hearings. Lynn Westmorland asking questions. This guy who couldn’t name many of the 10 commandments, I’m wondering what kind of score he would get on the civics literacy test.
Why does everyone claim that the Big 3 are broken. If not for the credit crunch they would be doing business as usual. Provided the public at large have jobs to purchase vehicles. And all this talk of scaling back production??? At a time when we need alternative energy powered transportation to get all the gas guzzlers and co2 emitters off the road. If we get past the propaganda, we’ll see that the future is ours to make here. Letting China step in and buy out manufacturing base is the final twist of the blade!
Left you a reply in epuland
http://firedoglake.com/2008/11…..nt-1732827
Here’s what I don’t understand. Suppose, once Obama has chosen his new SecTreas, that he and new Sec, Bernanke and Reid simply announce that the first order of business will be to divert some of the Treasury loot as a bridge loan to GM, subject to conditions Obama has already stated with respect to the ‘greening’ of the automobile industry. There is nothing the Republiks can do to stop it in the next Congress. Under that scenario, why wouldn’t the banks give a 60 day loan to GM anticipating the government loan? For that matter, why wouldn’t Bernanke buy GM paper for that term? This seems to me a plausible end-run around Paulsen’s reluctance to step in.
Paulsen is an odd duck. I had a conversation with an economist friend who was on the phone daily with Paulsen after September 15. My friend was pushing direct investment in banks (which they are now doing). He said t6hat Paulsen simply had an inexplicable bee in his bonnet with respect to direct investment. He couldn’t give any reason why he was against it; he was just against it.
Go figure.
How is your position different than say, Ron Paul?
If, as you say, “everything is broken” and “they” engineered this, do you think “they” want a bail out for the auto industry or don’t they?
There have been critics of the Federal Reserve and the Central Banking System in this country since the founding of the Republic. It is therefore a system that we have had in place for more than 225 years. What policy positions do you actually advocate in this regard and who would it benefit?
Not trying to be difficult here, just curious.
thanks – back in a few, got some more coffee going….
Labor has been broken since the 1960s. The entire model is unsustainable.
I recall vividly driving by the GM Motorwheel plant in Lansing Michigan in the back seat of our station wagon. My Mom explained that that is where her father had worked after losing his farm in the great depression and moving his family to Lansing. Clearly, I know of what I speak. My family is there – and I was raised near there.
My Mom explained that Grandpa received a “pension” from his days at GM that would pay him for the rest of his life – and even pay his wife after he died (he lived to 92, her to 100).
At the tender age of eight, I said: “How can that be? Where does the money come from to pay people who worked twenty or thirty years to live comfortably for the rest of their lives after they retire?”
I was told – “That’s just how the system works.” Clearly, she was wrong. It works until it doesn’t, and then it doesn’t. I remember many a conversation around the dinner table about the latest UAW contract ensuring $35 or more per hour to screw a nut on a frame at the GM plant. I worked in the auto parts business, I know it well. It was insane to pay someone $35 to do a menial job in 1974 dollars that enabled them to park a boat, a snowmobile and a motor home in the driveways.
IT WAS ALL TEMPORARY. Labor got greedy.
It made no sense to an eight year old in the sixties.
Characteristic thinking of the right. Believe, not evidence, determines their behavior.
I worked on Wall St. for 30 years. Those firms run themselves, i.e. the worker bees come in every day & do their jobs, and management either let’s it happen or gets in the way. They get in the way most often when they insist that the firm double up on whatever made profits yesterday, meaning they miss every turning point. I saw precious little evidence of analytical ability at the top, so I am not surprised that Paulson failed to understand what was going on.
Or sell them short. In the silver lining in every cloud department, I just learned a few minutes ago from my financial adviser that he saved our furniture by shorting SPDR’s in July.
Hey – I’m with you. As I ask Dean above about deflation in the short term, which the CW says is harmful, I sincerely question this business about the Big 3 being broken, per se.
I am with Thom Hartmann, for example, who believes that we need to protect our industry just like the Japanese did with their industry in the 60s and 70sby raising tarriffs and reflecting true costs on our domestic products. We should not be subsidizing shoddy labor practices in foreign countries or reward off-shoring.
One of the consequences of just letting the Auto Industry fail is that the Chinese will buy up the assets at bargain basement prices. The same Chinese who already ship us lead infected toys and bad baby formula, among other things. I just don’t see how it benefits us to let that happen for that reason alone.
Well you might grow up and get out of the 60s. Look at your calendar.
Labor share of the economy has been dropping for decades, and I think it’s now below where it was in the 60s.
I advocate following all of the money to the accounts of those whom have stolen it (the globalist banksters and their agents whom we call Senators and Congressman), taking it back, and putting them in prison. The “Federal Reserver” is neither “Federal,” nor does it hold any “Reserves.”
It is a crime syndicate.
big three leadership showed yesterday why they wont survive and have made such bad decisions in the past.
they dont get it. the private jet show and the lack of remorse for their “corporate lifestyle” is not only very BAD PR but it also shows how out of touch they are. No wonder they backed guzzlers and trucks, and created that need then filled it.
The explanation for the jet rides–safety. Truly, that is how the corporate spokesmen explained it. The only cure for this nationwide is a cap on corporate CEO pay.
I have real mixed feelings about this problem re auto industry. I agree with Plunger. The auto industry has ignored consumer demands for years. The arrogance of these dynasty led companies is staggering.
I’m wondering (I’m no industry expert) but I’m wondering what would happen if some other enterprise would pick up union workers to manufacture their newer and more earth friendly models than continue making Detroit cars people don’t want. Burn down the Detroit/Big Oil palace and let the innovators flourish with government support and backing.
Electric cars, yeah!
if you have no income because you lost your job
And that is long term, which I DO understand. There should be a long term goal of preserving jobs here in order to preserve said income. That’s why I think letting everything just blow up and not having some kind of “soft” landing is extremely important and that goal is being jeopardized by a combination of ideologues who want to break the labor movement once and for all and Blue Dog democrats who have this silly idea about fiscal responsibility in a time of a depression.
Did that solve the Big Three’s legacy issues? Do you understand what the term “Legacy” refers to?
I’m well aware of both the date, and the time, thank you.
Yes.
Labor has been broken since the 1960s. The entire model is unsustainable.
I will agree with you that the Labor movement practices in the 60s were unsustainable and that they gained too much power. Since then, however, the power has swung back heavily in favor of the corporations. The distribution of income in this country has swung heavily in favor of the very few and very wealthy. This is quite cyclical, of course.
A healthy labor movement plays a part in decreasing the distribution of income. There is a happy medium somewhere between powerful unions and powerful corporations. That happy medium is what I strive for.
UAW head Gettelfinger holding news conference at noon ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/New…..eid=yhoof2
After the ‘32 election, the inaugaration date was moved up from March to January. Now, the world is moving much faster. We need to move it up again.
Three months of not having a leader is just too long. This is made even worse when the lame duck is W. The auto industry is going to pay the price for this.
Totally agree with your statement here.
Sadly, the globalist banksters have conspired for decades to destroy labor’s overreach, and here we are.
I personally think they should save FORD (the original US auto manufacturer) and bury the other two. I absolutely understand the ramifications of that many layoffs, but we need to put those people to work doing something other than building cars that we simply don’t need.
You could water your grass during a flood just to keep the sprinkler company and the water company employees employed, but it wouldn’t make a hell of a lot of sense.
Hanky Paulson has 2 minne-mees. There is Cashandcarry and there is another one, Karthik Ramanathan. Carsick is Asst. Acting Treasury Director for Thievery and Finanacial Meltdown, and advisor to Dr.Evil. Carsick is testifying on C-Span. Carsick is a Predatory Capitalist, he does not answer questions, but he diverges into nonsense, and he is trying to steal your money and mine. Where does he come from? Goldman Sucks, of course.
I agree with you 100 percent.
The people who are currently in the auto industry right at this particular moment aren’t all stupid. They see that their industry is running on a bad premise. The point is that said workers need time to find alternatives and their needs to be investment and government policy to promote said alternative. Heavy sustained investment in battery technology, for example, just like we did with the Human Genome Project, the Internet, or putting a man on the moon. Giving them time is what I am advocating here. No strings attached should NOT be an option.
This requires leadership from the top down. Both Bushes (remember the “Vision thing”) were absolute failures at leadership and Clinton might have been a leader in some sense, but he had his priorities elsewhere. I think Obama is capable of this leadership, but we have to see if he can actually achieve. The Lieberman business has me more than a tad worried in that regard….
Comment by LeftHandedMan, posted at DKos, on the politics of this issue:
but we need to put those people to work doing something other than building cars that we simply don’t need.
I agree.
But we need to give the entire multi-million people industry enough time to find an alternative. Just letting them fail has a lot of nasty unintended consequences, such as the Chinese buying up the assets as well as the entire peripheral economy collapsing. I am 100 percent with Krugman on this one.
Paulson is a positively awful Treasury Secretary. He is in way over his head. He doesn’t know what he is doing. All he has is a desire to perpetuate the very system which created this mess and preserve those persons and companies most responsible for it, and naturally he is spending our money like water to do it
Killing an industry in the middle of a large economic downturn is a perfect example of Shock Doctrine. And we know where that leads.
All the carping & complaining about management & labor are arguments for another day, when the economy is out of danger.
The financial system has been stabilized. On C-Span, Karthik Ramathanamamablama “Your ATM’s continue to work…That is the kind of financial stability we have provided.”
China already owns us. That’s just the nature of collateralized debt. You default, they keep the collateral.
The only way to avoid it is at gunpoint.
The entire country is owned by another.
plunger,
Just because your grandparents lived to extreme old ages and were taken care of with a pension (how generous it was you didn’t state), wouldn’t necessarily make the system unsustainable. That’s one of those arguments which are known by the phrase anecdote != data. Generally speaking, people didn’t live anywhere near that long in the ’60s. You may wish to blame the AFL-CIO, but dude(tte), George Meany doesn’t run the union anymore, and a family needs both parents working to keep them going these days. You seem to be living in a fantasy that the past has never changed.
Gettlefinger (UAW) is talking about real people. Does he not know what a losing argument that is?
I agree. When there is a hole below the waterline and the ship is sinking, it isn’t time to talk about giving the engine a tune up. Nor as the Republicans would have it is it time to force wage concessions from the crew.
My #49 in response to eCahn’s #44.
If Congress could simply repeal gravity, we could all fly!
There is a force of nature at work here that legislators cannot control, no matter how much they might wish to – or might all wish them to.
They broke the entire system. The Titanic has sunk, and the deck chairs are floating on the surface.
Arrange them however you wish.
than continue making Detroit cars people don’t want.
Missed this part the first time. Detroit WAS making cars the people wanted and that were the most profitable to them – gas guzzling SUVs.
Corporations are in the business of taking care of themselves and more than likely thinking in the short term. Government policy is supposed to be thinking long term. (and at least medium term)
Letting Republican/Conservative memes run rough shod over the last 30-odd years has had the effect that we don’t allow our government to set long term policy because they believe that government shouldn’t be around in the first place. We haven’t had proper leadership on the federal level for a long time that portrays a sustainable long term vision for the country, that will propose policy that might be unpopular in the short term but has a belief that it is in the long term interest of the country.
Remember the BUTA tax that Clinton proposed in 1993, he didn’t have the leadership skills to get that through congress – same thing for health care.
To much of the Republican idea is “I’ve got mine so screw you,” that’s what “rugged individualism” is really about. We are now seeing the effects of when you just give people what they want without regard to the overall picture.
PS – the “ownership society” was not a long term vision – it was “I’ve got mine, so screw you” in repackaged form.
Thanks.
An analogy I favor: there are structural faults in a burning building. Which are you going to do first? Put out the fire or call in the engineers?
Afraid I don’t see a hole below waterline but I see a blockade preventing forward motion – the credit crunch will cause many major players to fail without some sort of correction. The auto industries may have challenges ahead but they’re not sinking. In fact even Toyota has stockpiles of unsold units in California. It’s the economy, stupid. Easy to BLAME greedy auto manufacturers when you really don’t have a clue as to how this all works. When the banking industry puts a gun to our heads, we need to fight back, not cave.
And, iirc, sold them at record levels.
Several here wish to use that fact as a negative, i.e., that consumers & car cos should have been environmentally responsible and bought small cars ever when gasoline was cheap. But that would have been insanity for the car cos., not to make the product that not only was in high demand, but very profitable.
Now, if you are environmentally conscious, or wish a sensible foreign policy vis-a-vis the oil producing countries, then bemoan the fact that your govt wasn’t more forward looking by, for examply, putting a $3/gallon tax on gasoline. But that’s another topic.
You could find the source of the fire and extinguish it. In this case the lack of credit. I think it’s easy to grasp that we need a manufacturing base here. To let the Big 3 go into bankruptcy is ONLY a ploy to kill organized labor and abandon retirees (legacy costs anyone?). Anyone suggesting that is complicit to an ideology we have just defeated in this election cycle. Ignore the idiots, support a stop gap and wait for the Obama/Dems to correct course.
Supply of credit is not the source source of the fire. It’s the bursting of the house price bubble (and the levereaged derivatives based thereupon). So mortgage workouts are essential. But now the whole economy’s in flames, so every firefighting measure possible should be used. In other words, it is well beyond the point where the source of the fire is relevant.
I am agreeing with you.
What I am responding to is the “just let it fail and let everything go to hell and a hand basket” feeling I get from Plunger, to whom I was responding.
My initial point is still this and fits into your Shock Doctrine point: Just like the battle to “Save” social security, the overall point for the GOP is to kill off the labor movement in this country once and for all. You have some stupid, misguided Blue Dog Dems talking about run-amok government spending who are playing into this.
The “carping & complaining about management & labor” are about getting this rescue plan passed. It is paramount to understand what the GOP and their corporate surrogates are attempting to achieve here.
OMG, W sez he’ll sign extension of jobless benefits if congress passes it.
If we are using the Titanic as the economic model, we need to blame Predatory Capitalism. It was not the Captain, the iceberg, or the hole in the hull. It was J P Morgan.
Perhaps I wasn’t clear. The economy is the hole below the waterline, i.e. the main problem. And it will take a Keynesian approach to solve it. So keeping the jobs associated with the auto industry is important regardless of the current desirability of the product in terms of efficiency and greenness. Economic contraction will make economy worse. Spending is how we will get out of this mess. Of course, it can be better spent than Paulson and Bernanke are doing it in largely ineffective and non-productive ways and one of these is to spend it on something like a Detroit bailout.
I know you’re agreeing with me, and I’m agreeing with you too. I was just putting a somewhat different frame on the argument.
OK, but weren’t there incentives to buy those SUVS? Weren’t they pushing them on consumers like crazy?
And I admit I’m reaching back to VW days when they sold like hot cakes and detroit didn’t respond back then to the conservation crowd.
Seems to me that Detroit works in tandem with Big Oil. Push the SUVs, then jack the price of gas.
I don’t want to mess with millions of jobs. I’m just saying the Detroit Despots deserve to have their ass handed to them. and more.
BTW, DBaker, anchor on CNBC after Gettleman presser was furious that he did not come on & announce that labor would cave completely & save the industry.
I hope I made my point that I am not anti union and I get that many may see this as an opportunity to kill off the union. I’m not for that…it just galls me to see crappy mgmt get rewarded.
Swiss central bank cut rates 100 bps. (Don’t know from what to what).
Oh, and another little rant: when the heck is everyone going to get their heads wrapped around the mortgage problem?
Derivatives clearing org (I never heard of it before, so don’t asked) announced that outstanding derivatives shrunk by $1 trillion in Sep, or maybe Oct, don’t remember which month.
Was referring to Big 3 – sorry, didn’t grasp your intent. I think we’re on the same page here. Having just retired after 34 years in the auto industry, I am shocked at the propaganda spewing forth on how badly they are managed. Truth is that the industry has made leaps and bounds in improvement in quality and costs. Legacy costs are an obligation to a workforce that has earned them. Not the American way to step away from obligations.
As for the economy, I can speak to that in that I invested in real estate instead of 401k. Was gloating till I started to try to liquidate after my recent retirement. Having several investment properties that I can’t sell anywhere near their worth is very concerning. I only hope I can wait it out.
Short term the only thing that is important are the jobs, and stimulating spending and credit so that people can buy the product. Mid to long term there are several things that could be done. You can increase gas taxes to make gas guzzlers more uneconomic. You can increase CAFE standards so that it is essentially impossible to build them. You can put prohibitive taxes specifically on them. But again these solutions would be for 3-5 years out to allow time for retooling and change over to new models.
The Big 3 had incentive across their product lines – just a marketing strategy. The SUV’s had bigger rebates due to bigger margins. Important to note that the market demand dictates what manufacturers build. Unfortunately, what we have seen is a market that has changed faster than manufacturers’ retooling capability. I could go into a line of details outlining all the things that have to change to bring a new product to market… But the shortest feasible lead time is at least 2 years. If you remember, all the foreign manufacturers were getting fat off of their big SUV’s as well. And the big 3 have offered economy cars all along. Ford even has had a hybrid for at least a couple of years.
This is too simplistic an argument.
The problem for our Chinese friends is that we actually own the currency to which they hold the debt – a currency which apparently still is the “go to” currency for most of the countries in the world.
Take a gander at the currency shifts over the last 90 days. You’ll see that while we have remained on par with Japan and China (that’s their choice), we have gained about 15-20 percent in the value of our currency despite the fact that our underlying economy is tanking.
The Chinese, have a myriad of their own set of problems, mostly that they still depend on us for a lot of things, especially because they have to steal or buy our technological know-how and they have no scruples whatsoever in doing so.
To have the notion of “the Chinese already own us” is, in my mind, lying down and playing dead, a policy that our federal government has had for too long, rather than protect the interests of the United States as a whole. This same conversation took place in the late 80s and early 90s with the Japanese as well. That is what I am talking about when I say there should be leadership on a federal level that promotes the interests of the United States as a whole. There are things that we can do legislatively to reverse the Chinese influence.
The day it really becomes too late is the day when the dollar ceases to be the world currency of choice. We’re close to that, but not there yet. To let the auto industry fail and remove another portion of our manufacturing base would get us closer.
Sorry to hear about your personal investments.
Yes, we are on the same page.
Legacy costs have been known to be unsustainable forever. I caught on in 1992, when FAS106 was being discussed. (That’s Financial Accounting Standard 106.) It requires corps to run the present value of post-retirement benefits thru the iincome statement & balance sheet. Of course, if FAS promulgated it in 1992, they had been working on it for a couple of years, which means it had probably become a problem a long time before that.
Corps reacted to it with outrage. How dare FAS Board tell us what to do. It was one of the most dramatic examples of denial I have ever witnessed.
That was also shortly after a visit to my mother’s home town, Johnstown, PA, which, in the day had 13 functioning steel mills, but by 1991, has one. But there was a medical clinic on every corner that did not have a bar or a church.
But, stepping back from the specifics of legacy costs, what does the fact that the corps can’t afford them mean in macroeconomic terms?
Pensions should not be a problem with fiduciarily (don’t know if that’s a word) responsible investing.
So it’s medical costs. That has little to do with the corps or the workers. That is related to the dismal economics of the medical industry and the lack of appropriate policy to address that.
When someone complains about “legacy costs,” my retort is: you mean the U.S. isn’t rich enough to afford medical care for its citizens?
Yes, but also government standards such as CAFE. It was by spiking CAFE with regard to SUVs and trucks that allowed this demand to develop. Now while this translated into short term profits for Detroit, it was a stupid and expensive diversion from reducing our national energy needs through greener more efficient cars.
CNBC reporting that a deal has been reached on loan to auto industry.
finally left you a reply.
any info on the parameters of the deal?
Republicans were probably getting cold feet with the blame they were going to get. Still I wonder how much the Democrats caved. It is curious in our political process that it is determined by who is the bigger coward.
To add to that, you could also increase tarriffs to make foreign (made) cars more expensive compared to American cars and use said tarriffs to pay for the bailout in the first place. This is sort of similar to imposing fees on shorting stock to pay for the financial bail out.
If I am not mistaken, we already do this for Harley Davidson.
Corporate America and the MSM would scream like banshees about this, but it is a responsible manner to pay for the flight of capital out of the country in the first place.
The tarriff measure would have to be temporary so that long term competition is not stifled, as an aside.
Left you a short reply.
CNBC reporting that the loan is coming from a reorientation of the $25 billion set aside for retooling. No details on conditions or how they’re able to do it.
I thought that was temporary, to allow for HD restructuring, and was rescinded after they did. Will try to find a link.
Spot on. In my limited travels to visit family in Florida for instance, as I pass mile upon mile of gated mansions along the coast, I wonder who it is that can afford these properties and how we CANNOT afford health care. I know that’s anecdotal but you know how it is when you drive long distances… Regardless, we HAVE seen a redistribution of wealth in this country with ever increasing amounts going to the top 1%. How can our economic system produce a Bill Gates but not universal health care? This also leads to another argument, (because I anticipate being called a socialist) that I have with an econ professor of mine: Russia was a central command society, how are we so different with our Federal Reserve dictating the price of money? Seems in a round about way somewhat socialist in nature if you (wrongly perhaps) assume that the Fed Reserve is “government”.
and as per usual the deals are struck by a few players while the rest of us don’t even know the parameters of the deal, let alone have competing legislation or even proposals to read and comment on.
if that is the case, then it is the dems who caved as that is what paulson wanted them to do (and keep their hands off his $700 billion)
Harley’s wiki sez this
but doesn’t seem to say anything about its being revoked so maybe it’s still in place.
Sure, but business is business. So who is to blame? Republicans? Democrats? Consumers? I think what we’re seeing present itself, and many of us have known for some time, is that it is probably the role of government to be the conscience of business. But when government is controlled by those with no conscience or moral compass, we will see the massive failing witnessed now and in the 20’s.
Of course. Yet another example, if we needed one, of the futility of reaching across the aisle. Madness.
We might want to move a few flights upstairs.
http://emptywheel.firedoglake……ins-again/
I felt all along that this would be the outcome. Bottom line, save the car companies now with whatever method possible and correct after January.
thanks…
I’m not an advocate of “letting it fail.” I am a huge advocate of reality. It HAS FAILED. It can’t be “fixed.”
The concept of “letting it fail” implies there is something to fix. There isn’t. It’s called a depression for a reason.
Hate to take exception to your eight year old observations, but what’s wrong with a assembly line factory worker being able to buy a boat or have a decent retirement? The problem, to a small extent, is the upper eschelons who travelled by private jets (three) to the Washington hearings.
What we need to do is nationalize the automobile industry. Big nut to absorb, but perhaps creating something like FDL for the industry will bring out ideas from the rank and file. We need to get rid of the higher ups who took the really short view and bet on SUVs. Supposedly GM has a cheap car made in China which they would not import. I think the guy who ran their China operation quit over it. He might be a good guy to put in charge. Two things are for sure. We can’t let the industry go down or get transferred to China and we can’t keep going in the same direction with the same executives.
The mortgages for the most part have no identifiable owner. The holder of record title who brings the foreclosure does not own the mortgage note (in thee sense of being entitled to the principle and interest payments) and in many states does not have “standing” to bring the foreclosure. In Connecticut MERS (Mortgage Electronic Registration System) who held record title to many of the mortgages as “nominee” (whatever that is) has already been held to lack standing. Mortgage foreclosures are generally proceedings in equity (the judge is supposed to do “justice” between the parties)so it doesn’t stretch things to urge these mortgages can not be foreclosed because no identifiable entity owns them. Of course, if the plaintiff doesn’t have standing to sue, it doesn’t have standing to “settle”, but that can be overcome. The trouble is these defenses require a lawyer and lawyers are expensive, too expensive for low end borrowers. Too bad bar associations don’t mobilize their members to defend the foreclosures, but most lawyers identify and serve people with money. They are not inclined to go against them.
I wanted to make a point that hasn’t been made about the big 3’s managerial screwups:
The main issue isn’t that Detroit was building SUVs when they were popular – all manufacturers were. It’s that Detroit funneled the profits into executive compensation, misguided acquisitions (Saab, Jaguar, etc), and profit taking. All the while ignoring elements of their business that were weighing them down and are now killing them – bloated dealer networks, redundant and inefficient models and brands, and a severe lack of competitive small and midsize cars.
Examples: While making huge profits on F150s and Explorers, Ford launched the new Focus compact that is, under the skin, literally the same car that has been out since 1999. GM’s subcompact is a rebadged Korean Daewoo which is universally reviled for its cheap build quality. Chrysler’s small car offerings are both tall, car-based utility vehicle which get terrible fuel economy due to poor aerodynamics – and in the PT Cruisers case, is again a decades-old design that has never been seriously updated.
Yes, some of Detroit’s products and methods have improved recently, and no, letting those jobs vanish now is not acceptable. But Detroit’s business model is, and will remain, deeply and fundamentally flawed. Wagoner admitted during the hearings that GM is burning through $5 Billion a month – so their 10 Billion share of the bailout will last them through February. What then? GM had been bleeding money and market share since long before the housing bubble burst, Chrysler is in stasis until Cerberus can find someone to unload it on, and no amount of bridge loans will turn these things around, without a fundamental change in direction.
I’m not sure what I think should happen. I think Krugman’s right, the jobs have to survive. Since I don’t foresee Obama starting a meaningful public works program to employ those workers if the automakers go under, I suppose the automakers need to stay too.
What can go, and needs to, as part of a bailout, however, is the current leadership of those automakers – barring Mullaly at Ford, who is making some real progress. Cut executive compensation to the bone and get some new people in there. Use the government intervention to cut down the dealer network and kill some brands.
Perhaps then, after we’ve forked over the hundreds of Billions necessary to keep Detroit alive, we’ll have a manufacturing industry that can be a strong global player. And if we’re lucky, we won’t be fighting to stop all those jobs going to Mexico in a few years, anyway.
The fact is, the intellectual vigor of the United States is now reaching parity with the economic situation. Eventually our geopolitical situation will fall in line with the both of them. It may be the end of empire. It certainly isn’t looking like a renaissance of reason…
The Chrysler bailout of 1997 was effective because that company was willing to completely reinvent its wheels. It did this with a solid leader named Lee Iacocca and that was money well spent. Watching the Senate panel quizzing these three CEO’s I didn’t hear any suggestions or hint of restructuring and becoming competitive. Nor, did I hear any one of them list the reasons for their decline. I didn’t hear any of our pompous Senators ask relevant question either. They were all more than happy to give away taxpayer funds. It is estimated the 25 billion will only last through the middle of next year. This money will be used for operating expenses. When it runs out the CEO’s will be back on their knees giving the same politicians virtual oral for Billions more. The politicians want to give away this money to support their base or in other words the union. It would be better to let them fail and restructure. If the government wants to do something they can guarantee the auto warranties for the buyer. The big three will continue to have problems until they restructure and stand up to the UAW and hopefully break them. The average UAW workers hourly rate is $70 when all the benefits are added in. A like worker working for Toyota at a US plant is about $45. That’s a decent rate that many workers in the US would love to have. The big three have other problems such as poor management and lack of vision. Without breaking the UAW none of this will matter. That would be change you can believe in.
My understanding that it still is in place, but I might be wrong.
Outstanding post and comment! You should make this a diary!
The union’s not the problem. Our country’s lack of economic policy regarding outsourcing, mergers, etc. is most at blame. That $75 figure includes legacy costs that Toyota doesn’t yet have. You can’t compare apples and oranges. Besides, why advocate for a lower income for working folks when the top 1% have tripled their incomes? You really don’t have a clue and to suggest busting the union exposes your alignment with a mentality and political ideal that was overwhelming voted out this election.
There’s so many things wrong with this comment, starting with “Chrysler Bailout of 1997″ I think you might mean 1979, as that was the one that involved Iacocca and his $1 salary. This is an excellent blogpost on this subject. While it was successful in the short term, it probably did not serve Chrysler well in the long term. (read the post).
As far as the automakers not reinventing themselves, see this from the Detroit Free Press
For that $70 per hour thing – go to Mr. Baker (no relation of mine) himself, here. The figure is actually $41, and no worker in the United States ever uses this particular figure when you ask them what they make. The real figure, as Mr. Baker states is $28.
Using teh Google, I came across this Kos diary and found out where the $70 came from (the Heritage Foundation is saying $75, talk radio has been using $70), the Heritage Foundation. Need I say more……
You beat me to it, but as you can see I don’t think his argument is being made in good faith….
Disregarding the larger economic model question, if that was insane, then what is CEO compensation (including golden parachutes) for failing or bankrupt companies?
“They” Kemosabe?
Let’s be more precise: Republicans broke it to aid their Rich friends.
Oh, that’s understood. But, Paulson & Bush won’t let us fix it.