I used to believe that massive government fraud and corruption was something that took place behind the scenes. If anyone tried it in the light of day, they’d be summarily fired, publically vilified, and probably indicted. But Tim Geithner’s plan to remove toxic assets from the banking system is making it all respectable.
What would we think, for example, if we discovered that the Bush Administration had been secretly lending hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to their friends to participate in a highly speculative investment scheme? Some of the friends turned out to be former colleagues and mentors at private equity and sovereign wealth funds, and most of the money came from subsidized interest rates on non-recourse loans from the FDIC, so that if the investments went bad, the private investors could walk away with only minor losses while leaving the Treasury stuck with the bad investments? But if the investments became profitable, the private investors would have leveraged massive US dollars and become obscenely rich.
I’d still like to think if we discovered this had been going on, Congress and the public would demand the resignations of every responsible official. There would have been calls for criminal investigations of the extent of corruption and collusion in the scheme to loot US taxpayers.
How naive I once was. The Obama Administration’s position is that if you set up this speculative looting scheme to occur in broad daylight, and claim it will unclog bank lending, it’s okay. And private investors who take advantage of the looting scheme should be regarded as "the good guys," as Christina Romer suggested yesterday, while the officials who concocted this scheme must be retained no matter what the public outrage.
Has the Obama Administration really sunk to this? What possible excuses do they have?
1. The program would remove $500 billion to $1 trillion in toxic assets from the bank’s balance sheets, supposedly "unclogging" the credit system? Okay, but so would just buying the assets outright without the private partnership subterfuge and subsidies to private investors.
2. The private participation allows them to bid to create a market. Cut the crap. Bidding may create a "market" but subsidized, risk-shielding bids do not create efficient prices.
3. The private participant bids improve the prices. More crap. Subsidized bids (or shifting risks of losses) may serve to increase bid prices (probably a goal here), but what is the public interest in that? And even if the point is to pay more for the assets to help reach the banks’ reserve prices, then just pay it. It’s a bad idea, and we don’t need sweetheart private deals to achieve it.
4. The partnerships will help leverage private investment dollars to help purchase the assets. Yes, and do so very inefficiently, by unjustly enriching the private investors, whose contribution is trivial.
5. The partnership avoids the problem in the original Paulson proposal of not knowing how much to pay for assets. How? If there are auctions, the banks will set reserve prices below which they will not sell. Either the auctions fail to meet those prices, or the subsidies will increase to close the gap been offers and bids. The incentives/subsidies will drive the prices and we still won’t know what the "correct" price should have been.
6. We need private equity participation because it has expertise in evaluating banks assets. More gibberish. The first thing we need is due diligence by our government. Go through the assets (or a set of them), check their histories and find out what’s in them. If you need more experts, hire them without the scam.





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“Taxpayers are certain to lash out at the terms. They will get a share of the profits, if there are any. Investors will get a share of the profits, even if there aren’t any.
Tells you all you need to know.
If the Obama team were playing in the NCAA tourney, I’d say it’s obvious they’re playing to lose.
But then I’d ask why.
The only answer I could come up with is that there’s a big bet somewhere they will lose, and the team members eventually will get payoffs under the table.
carrumba Scarecrow ! that I am able to grasp all 6 of your points is a credit to your writing, and sadly, also an indication of the insultingly naked nature of Geitner’s gambit – tragic
thanks! rec.
Amen to cbl2′ comment. I am so disgusted and enraged by this stupidity and gross corruption I can hardly stand it. What can I do to help stop this insanity?
Thanks Scarecrow for telling it like it is.
Blessings
DIGG IS OPEN – - and recommended.
We can tell who the good guys are because they are the ones using the white bags to loot us.
Thanks, Scarecrow. As I read your diary the thought came that such promotions could have been coming from Madoff’s oily tongue.
Unless our chicken-livered congresscritters stand up and do their duty, we will have this insanity forced upon us.
BTW all the points that you make are good. The Geithner plan has no redeeming qualities to it at all. It is as dishonest as it is obscene. It is the umpteenth iteration in the grand scheme to make crap assets appear more valuable than they are. The language may change but the goal is always the same. Dump crap assets on the American taxpayer and bailout a corrupt financial system.
This question has been bugging me as Obama keeps saying that banks are reluctant to lend, so the govt. has to do this kind of thing to make them lend again and that is, why then doesn’t the govt. itself lend to consumers and small businesses directly? Cut out the middleman and since the govt. doesn’t pay obscene salaries and bonuses, it can lend at very competitive rates and fees, even while making money for the taxpayers.
Is that somehow “unconstitutional” to help out the citizens?
As far as, “Has the Obama administration sunk…?”: yes he can, yes he will, and yes he is. Geithner is a kind of anti-Christ. He is not the answer and has none. He has no creative capacity. This plan will produce almost no forward motion and the masses will cheer it on from their homeless shelters. Life is strange. We don’t even have spare change,much less change change.
i don’t see this as geithner’s plan. it’s too much like paulson’s plan and i doubt summers isn’t calling the shots. geithner is a convenient target for our frustration, but could we expect anything to change if he was fired? i don’t think so, not unless summers is fired too.
What I find perplexing and disturbing is this:
If Glass-Steagall was still in it’s ultimate force and effect [which addresses the whole segregation of banking from insurance from securities] not only would we NOT be in this situation [due to Graham-Leach-Bliley, which sound as superbly Dickensian names to me right about now] the Geithner plan would be illegal.
There’s no systemic resolution; only re-inflation of the bubble mentality.
Where’s the systemic resolution?
Because government can never do anything as well as private enterprise. Just compare Medicare to private health care plans or the unreliability of Social Security compared to your 401K. /s
What seems rather straightforward is that these assets actually DO have a value right now.. kinda. If they are mortgages the value is what the holder is supposed to receive over the term of the mortgage. But not all those loans will perform. Why? because the underlying assets have lost their value and some of the mortgage holders are walking away from the obligations leaving the asset instead of the money to be paid. OK so use some math and statistics and figure out how what percentage of the loans will not perform, and what the mortgage holder might sell the asset for and add them up and that’s the current value of the asset (bundle of loans). Will it go up in value? Hell no! As the notes are paid it goes down over time. This doesn’t seem to be rocket science. If these assets have dropped 50% then pay $.50 on the dollar for them. Why should anyone pay full face value? Isn’t that like trying to sell a used car for the new car price?
The problem seems to be that the financial institutions used too much leverage. Bought more than they could pay for. Or wagered more than they had. Way more. Why do we want that system to survive?
I don’t think the banksters can live without that huge leverage because that’s where all the profits lie. It is basically a greed problem and everyone at every stage of the deal is demanding way too much for what they actually DO and none of them want to give it up.
The Fed has been moving towards providing more lending support to those who do lend, and in cases of larger business, lending directly. Stirling Newbury did a post talking about this and other options.
http://firedoglake.com/2009/02…..the-banks/
Also not that the US government already makes direct loans in some areas, such as student loans. In previous years, the trend has been to try to subsidized private lenders to take over much of that business, but there were so many scandals that there is now an effort by the Administration to move student loans back directly under the Dept of Education. That’s in his proposed budget, and of course, the private lenders and those to whom they contribute are howling.
I agree. Obama and his economic team own this turkey together.
so that means, what? A shadow Secretary Paulson or run out of Goldman? I think Geithner’s in charge, but he’s not inclined to depart too much from where the Paulson was last year, except in how you package this.
The one thing we should note is that the new plan contains not only the PPIP — private partners — but the commitment of FDIC to provide most of the funds. They’ve come up with a plan that “leverages” the limited TARP funds and taps into FDIC’s “lending authority,” whatever that is, but Congress never intended/sanctioned that, unless I missed it. anyone recall?
some people are actually trying to come up with one. shocking i know, but it’s out of the UN and there are a lot of countries that have been on the receiving end of larry summers’ economic policies. so there may be some genuine motivation other than greed.
if you want to read it, there is a draft for downloading: The recommendations of the Commission of Experts of the President of the General Assembly on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System
i just posted the bit on a new reserve currency over at calculated risk.
dersuuza, it would be cheaper to set up a state bank, but you’d be called a socialist for doing it. You’d also have the problem of the deadweight loss of productive assets.
selise, Geithner and Paulson are coming at it from the same place. There’s no point sacking Geithner. They’re never hiring anyone who doesn’t want the same thing.
Those who want the assets inspected, are you kidding? The last thing Geithner wants is for it to be revealed that all the big banks are bankrupt. The plan is to make them unbankrupt as quickly as possible.
LOL!
There are many clones who would follow in the same steps because they believe that Wall Street knows best. They BELIEVE in the wisdom of Wall Street. And the chaste one believe the banksters can behave now and with a little watchdogging it will all work again, perhaps a cooler temperature.
Of course they can’t be rational and transparent, because the entire thing is pretty much criminal and corrupt and all sorts of upstanding citizens are making out from this system. Think of all the nice granny’s who put money in their hands and how they made money for granny – can’t be all that bad now can it?
The gov could charter banks and they could lend sensibly and not play the market with leverage. Why not let these banks fail and set up some new ones. No former banksters are allowed to work in banking in the new banks.
The part I love the most this is the laws that did this stay in place so it can happen again, again, well you get the idea. The uncle milton dream to distroy what’s left of the middle class of Amerika. The few things that are good coming from this group will never over come this wonderful give away to the rich. Good Luck to us All.
jo6pac
There not enough money to make them un bankrupt.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Hussman Funds
Brief remark – from early reports regarding the toxic assets plan, it appears that the Treasury envisions allowing private investors to bid for toxic mortgage securities, but only to put up about 4% of the purchase price – the remainder being “non-recourse” financing from the Fed, Treasury and FDIC. This essentially implies that the government would grant bidders a put option against 96% of whatever price is bid. This is not only an invitation for rampant moral hazard, as it would allow the financing of largely speculative and inefficently priced bids with the public bearing the cost of losses, but of much greater concern, it is a likely recipe for the insolvency of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and represents a major end-run around Congress by unelected bureaucrats.
Sander0, the problem is that you have a range of assets. Some are worth more than others, but only the holders know which are which. Buyers do not want to pay too much for the bad ones, and they (rightly) suspect that if they pay the average price for these assets, they will be palmed off with lemons. So buyers are only willing to purchase the assets at the value of the worst of them. No bank will sell at that price because they hope to con someone into paying at least the average price for their lemons. Geithner plans to be the mark, and you’ll pay the difference. Although the private investors will get theirs, it’s the banks the plan is for.
Thank you very much. I’ll go read that right now. Interesting that it’s from the UN – where is our domestic response?
It’s basically a rhetorical question, I know. There’s not much interest in turning of the firehose-of-money when you can blend banks-securities-insurance companies together. but that’s what needs to be done:
The UNDOING OF GRAHAM-LEACH-BLILEY!
by the way I am today a victim of the shrinking economy – laid off no severance , no notice.. nada. bye bye.
And Geithner (as head of the NY Fed) sat with Paulson at the “negotiating” table last fall to hammer out the first of the bailouts. As I said in the Bill Black thread earlier today, Bill wrote this (from a piece that Jane linked to in her set-up post)[.doc]:
Sound like two peas in a pod, don’t they?
If we are paying 97% we get to declare that all the bundles are at the average value.
Nothing will change unless Obama is fired too.
And guess who is on their board? Does Phil G ring a bell?
((((SanderO)))) so sorry to hear that.
Well, that’s sort of the “normal” FDIC takes control route, isn’t it. A new bank emerges that’s fine and FDIC receivers hang around to clean up the remainder as best they can. That route is already sanctioned by Congress; the proposed approach is entirely new, pushed by the inventor of Maiden Lane, who keeps applying this “third entity” formula to everything.
That’s not even close to true, even though it is very costly.
it means that geithner is not a rouge operator. he’s doing exactly what his bosses want him to do and that is not so very different from what paulson proposed – and obama supported – last fall.
the big difference, imo, is something that you’ve pointed out – the new version of the bailout plan is designed to go around congress.
Yep. Sad news. Good luck.
damn. i’m so sorry to hear that.
We don’t know what it is, and can’t force them to sell at any price.
Sorry to hear that. Happened to me last year, and I counted myself fortunate that it was 6 months before I found a new gig.
Here’s hoping you have less time out of work!
Wall Street went bonkers today… Main Street did not. What does that say?
Just a few items you may want to know about the FDIC…
FDIC Insurance Insanity
The insanity of the FDIC insurance guarantees is completely out of control. Sheila Bair of the FDIC is acting like Hank Greenberg of AIG in that she has decided to “insure” all new product lines with NOTHING to back up her promises!
Look at the latest release from the FDIC on March, 4, 2009:
http://www.fdic.gov/about/strategic/corporate
/cfo_report_4qtr_08/1208_CFO_Report.pdf
Highlights:
1) “The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) balance (unaudited) decreased by 45.5 percent ($15.699B) to $18.889 billion during the 4th quarter of 2008″
Are you kidding me? With the rate of default increasing in the first quarter of 2009 the FDIC should be INSOLVENT by the end of the month!
2) “The DIF reserve ration is 0.40 percent as of December 31, 2008, which is 82 basis points lower than the 1.22 percent reserve ration at year-end 2007″
That means as of Jan 1, 2009 there was only $19B to insure $4.7 TRILLION in deposits!
And now Sheila Bair and the FDIC is going to guarantee another $1 TRILLION more with this new TOXIC ASSET BAILOUT.
THE BANKERS WIN AGAIN BY GETTING PAID OUT AT AN INFLATED PRICE FOR THEIR TOXIC ASSETS!
Now run the probable scenario of how this will go down…
1) The FDIC will run out of money in a matter of weeks.
2) The FDIC will run to Congress to get additional funds claiming that they cannot let down the individual investor.
3) The Congress is STUCK because they have to give the FDIC additional funds even though a lot of that money will go to bailing out the toxic bankings assets.
4) By mingling FDIC guarantees on individual bank accounts with FDIC toxic asset guarantees Congress has no option but to bailout the FDIC!
5) Congress prints more money to cover-up the problem at the same time devaluing the dollar and putting the US tax payer further into debt.
Any way you twist this thing the US citizen loses and the bankers WIN.
WHO GAVE SHEILA BAIR AND THE POWER TO COMMIT US TAXPAYER MONEY TO TOXIC ASSETS HELD BY THE BANKS?
WE NEED A REVOLUTION!
that i disagree with. summers has a long history wrt the economic policies that got us into this mess. if he’s human he’s going to have a vested interest in proving that he was not wrong. that’s going to make it very, very difficult for him to change course – he’d have to admit that most everything he did, including to help kill millions of people, was all wrong.
obama does not have that baggage, he could change course without having to repudiate the core of his previous work.
Was, not is, and it’s right there in the blockquote: Phil Gramm, scourge of accountability, slayer of regulations, and vanquisher of governmental oversight of any kind he could get his hands on.
Brad DeLong sure jumped in with both feet on this one. I’ve got a simple question:
1) If the tax payers are fundamentally paying to purchase the toxic assets,&
2) The tax payers fundamentally are taking the risk (let’s not quibble the nuances of these two points);
Why shouldn’t we just by the damn assets outright and leave the hedge-fund boys and girls to find their own way to make money? Let’s face it, when we get down to the individual obligations, they either have value (can be caused to make payment) or not. It doesn’t take hedge-fund players to take care of this. We just need to institute bill collection processes. And frankly, this could be done cost effectively within a governmental institution while providing a number of new jobs. Seems like a duh to me.
Otherwise, let’s just go Swedish. Either way, we can leave Wall Street on the sidelines and make everyone happy.
TALF = Taxpayers AIG would Like to F*ck
My thoughts are with you.
Obama’s baggage is 10 years at Chicago. I thought you were present at the William Black thread.
I suspect there’s more than ideology about Obama’s participation too, but I haven’t thought of anything that isn’t tin-foil hat stuff yet.
Chicken today feathers tomorrow.
Thanks pups… I’ll be looking for a new salt mine to crawl into.
The object of the exercise is to funnel the money to banks through the hedge funds to create a false inflated value for crap assets. This allows both the banks and the government to hide the insolvency of the banks.
i just like the idea of seeing summers’ head explode if he has to take the recommendations even a little bit seriously. it’s round two (or three depending how you count) of the summers v stiglitz battle (ok, it’s not just them, but it’s so much more fun to personalize it *g*).
It’s just another scheme by geithner to help out his wall street constituency. Fresh off of the public outcry due to the aig bonuses that geithner essentially okayed, they push this looting of citizens future tax earnings (ultimately via inflation) through while they still can.
Z
Two questions:
1. I keep getting hints that some of these TARP recipients are using bail out funds to take the opposing bet, of the “bad” bet, the gov’t just took off their shoulders. IOW, the taxpayer takes the toxic asset, and the hedge fund, uses taxpayer money to bet against the asset. Anyone else getting this drift?
2. It’s my understanding that these toxic assets are an amalgam of mortgages, credit card debt, car loans and other “stuff” that blew up when the housing bubble burst. But, Treasury/Fed’s resistance to the type of price discovery process that Galbraith wrote about here over the weekend is beginning to make me wonder what other kinds of “junk” might be in the mix. And, whether there might be a real desire for that “junk” (whatever it might be) to stay hidden. Anyone else wondering about that, or is that my personal tin foil hat problem?
I can’t really figure out what Obi really thinks. He’s quite slippery and smooth. He likes to please all the people all the time and that includes the banksters, the warriors and even the pukes. He’s the kumbaya dude.
Who is Obi’s base?
Obama has said repeatedly things like he’s the one who’s responsible or the buck stops with me. I take him at his word. His first mistake was listening to Rubin, Summers, and Geithner. They had records and he should have known what they were. His second has been his sticking with them despite how bad and unpopular their ideas are proving.
I keep getting this image of a victorious President Bush starting his second term and boasting about his political capital. That evaporated rather quickly after he tried to take on Social Security. If it had not been for the willing complicity of Democrats, he would have been unable to get almost anything through Congress in his last two years. I think this could happen to Obama.
not the same thing at all – i’m not talking just ideology. what i mean first of all is that isn’t it much easier to change one’s ideology if that’s all there is? i’d think it would be much harder to face that i was wrong, not just in my beliefs but also in my actions. and especially if those actions had caused so much death and suffering.
edit – should also add that i think there’s a lot more at play here than ideology though. with summers his proclaimed ideology does not explain his actions. doesn’t have to get tin foil hat though. how about will to power?
It’s a way to create another asset bubble and make money from trades again!
A vote of confidence from across the Pacific:
Report: China Suggests New Reserve Currency
and it ain’t the dollar.
How can you even ask that Q after the last 8 years, which IMO proved that ideology trumps everything else.
Oh, I agree. They have to be on drugs to think A) they can do it and B) this is a good thing to do.
He did know their records. That’s why he chose them.
i don’t understand what you mean.
Whether this hides or reveals insolvency depends on the auction results. In Geither’s press briefing today, he explained the private participation as a means to get the “market’s” assessment of the value and a means to make sure taxpayer don’t pay too much. The idea being that the investors will have an incentive not to bid more than they have to win, so as to maximize their chances of profiting over the long run as, they hope, the assets increase in value. That’s his argument, and without other influences, that seems logical. But the FDIC loan conditions would tend to encourage bidders to bid more than they otherwise might, so there are off-setting incentives, and it’s not clear what will happen.
But in the final analysis, as Yves has pointed out, the banks don’t have to sell. They can set a reserve price, and if the bids, however influenced by the incentives, are below the reserve price, there’s no sale.
Or to put it another way, if the reserve prices is above the bids, the mechanism does not provide a cover to pay inflated prices; the mechanism simply fails to do anything.
Krugman has acknowledged that the “market” may be overspooked about risk and thus setting too low a market price, so the incentives may encourage bidders back to some hypothetical “true” clearing prices, but it doesn’t matter if that clearing price is still at a price that leaves the banks overexposed. I assume banks will set reserve prices at levels that don’t leave them exposed as insolvent, and so it’s quite possible the entire mechanism will be a waste of time. Geithner never discussed this issue and no one asked.
lol – that was the CR post i was referring to in my comment @18. or you could just read my comment at CR.
Neocons are all about ideology, as is the economics nightmare that we are still in. No evidence to the contrary will every convince those types that it’s the wrong thing.
I don’t see a new reserve currency in the offing. China is just pissed because of losses in its dollar denominated holdings, something that it should have seen coming for years. As it is, countries are continuing to go their own ways in response to this crisis. American leadership still really counts for a lot in these things and we aren’t seeing any. In the absence of it, there really aren’t any replacements. Where are we now? It is sort of like if you have the heft you don’t have the ideas and if you have the ideas you don’t have the heft.
if people are “overspooked about risk” why did the djia go up 6.8% today?
I’d love to read what you wrote,
but CR comments are mysteriously invisible to my browser.
If the auction is fixed, and it is, then its price discovery function (and valuation) is invalid.
OTOH the government can use whatever mechanism it wants to set a price but the kicker is that mechanism has to be seen as legitimate. If it is bogus like this one, then it is just a waste of time and money, lots and lots of money.
Of course the other thing that Krugman has been saying, as he did on the NewsHour this evening, is that a lot of this stuff is trash and no matter the mechanism that is how it will be valued.
I wasn’t suggesting the auctions would be “fixed” though I did say they’ve be influenced by the incentive given to buyers. My understanding is that reserve prices are a common feature of many auctions. It’s the seller basically submitting a bid that says, “I won’t sell unless the price is at least $X”, (since the bank has no obligation to sell except at a price it accepts) just as the buyers are submitting bids that say, “I won’t buy if the prices is more than $Y” since the buyer has no obligation to buy accept at a price it agrees to.
Geithner!
The reluctance to value the assets at market are also an attempt to prop up property prices.
Pull the plug and property prices all over the US will rival Cleveland & Detroit.
i don’t know what to make of the china statement yet. will have to think on it some. but i do think it goes way beyond being pissed off about losses – there is a lot of anger generally about our irresponsibility. that may be a part of it.
but i would no longer be surprised to see some major shift towards a different reserve currency if we don’t get our act together soon. here’s a bit from brad setser:
i read this to mean that we’re in a transition period where change becomes more possible.
re alternatives to the dollar reserve.. some very smart people are working on it. here’s the bit i posted over at CR:
of course the dollar is still backed by the world’s largest military and saudi oil. so i’m definitely not betting against the dollar… but i’m not seeing countries only going their own way either. in fact, i’m seeing lots of effort going into attempts at coordination (not from us though, sadly). it’s the people who see the crisis as an existential one who, i think, are doing the most to seriously address it.
I’m just saying that since the government is the real buyer it establishes the price. Auctions and reverse auctions just seem like so much kabuki to me. If we want real price discovery, we should just ask the government to fix a price. If it is believable, then we’re done. If not, the government has to come up with a different price. The real price discovery does not involve the banks and the hedge funds. It takes place between the government and the American people. Everything else is kabuki.
Outstanding post – thank you Scarecrow for this lucid analysis.
it wasn’t much just the link and quote – see my comment @75.
where to start? i don’t think the neocons are all about ideology – i think that’s just religion-talk for us rubes but not what they really believe. but even if it was, are you saying that obama is a neocon and therefore can’t change his ideology? or something else?
sorry to be so obtuse.
watertiger is upstairs at the Mothership!
What if Joan of Arc Had a Twitter Account…
I am more cynical. The politics of the rich countries are pulling them in a protectionist direction. It was what I said upthread. The people with clout don’t have a lot of interest in doing the right thing. Those who would don’t have the power.
As for China, again I’m cynical. One of my principal arguments about this mess not being primarily an American responsibility is that bankers everywhere could do the math. Just because we had a lot of fools on Wall Street doesn’t absolve bankers in Berlin and Hong Kong. They had fiduciary trusts and obligations of due diligence which they blew off.
More specifically, China’s fixing the price of the yuan against the dollar subsidized exports to the US. They also followed a policy of buying up American debt. It is not hard to see that this could not go on forever and that there would be a re-alignment and an erosion in the value of Chinese dollar denominated assets. They knew it. We knew it. Politicians there made the decision to accept it in exchange for export driven economic development. We accepted it here because it allowed us to maintain an artificially high lifestyle based on increased debt (in the face of stagnant wage growth and the decline of American manufacturing).
Due diligence on these assets is a crock. Everything I have read is that the banks didn’t even get the data on the loans in the go go days. They just packaged them up and pushed them out the door.
People cannot evaluate the mortgage backed securities because they are a big unknown. Big fat question mark.
If they could evaluate them they would have already and there would be a lot less uncertainty about what these things are worth.
Hell some of the banks can’t even prove they have a right to foreclose on the house in bankrupty court. Can’t even prove it. That is how little data they have.
read calculated risk! Very illuminating.
not unless they organize. maybe not even then, but that’s the only way for the powerless to affect change. works the same everywhere as far as i know. and that’s what i think we’re seeing now and why i think it will depend on whether people see the crisis as an existential one.
re china. i’m not so sure any more. i used to believe that the size of china’s reserves were mostly about fixing the yuan. but after stiglitz’s talk a couple of weeks ago, i’ve been examining that idea and i’m not sure the numbers add up. first because china’s reserves aren’t all or even mostly dollars. second, because the reserves are so much larger than our trade deficit. but like i said, i need to think more, a lot more, on this one.
what does seem clear to me though, wrt china, is that they may have expected the status quo should have lasted longer (and had we acted responsibly it could have) maybe even long enough so that china would have been in a better position to transition to internal demand. not sure they had much of any choice except export driven development.
wrt to the issue of our increased debt, galbraith says (i think) that is a function of the dollar as reserve currency. not sure i buy that though (he doesn’t give enough explanation for me to follow his thinking – or i don’t have the background yet to see it.).
… should say though, it’s not so much that i disagree, it’s just that i’m not so sure. being agnostic i guess. *g*
Well, in a sense the dollar being the reserve currency made it easier for our government to run up debt and then hope that dollar inflation would pay off some or most of it.
I agree that China thought the party would last longer but that was just a miscalculation on their part. As long as the party was going on, the Chinese didn’t have too many problems with it. In fact you could argue for their development they needed for there to be a party and if it was kind of wild that merely furthered their interests (until the drapes caught fire and the place burned down.)
The reason that I see problems with international monetary cooperation is that it isn’t just about that. It is about what kind of country, development, and rate of development countries want to have. And I don’t think any country has thought about that in any real sense or tried to integrate it into the needs and desires of other countries. I am not against such action. I think it is good but I don’t know how successful it is likely to be in the short term.
one thing that just occurred to me is how larry summers may be really helping promote some efforts at coordination….. so many countries have been at the receiving end of his economic policies that the idea of 8 years of him in charge of obama’s economics team could be pushing them to act and organize with other countries out of fear of what summers may want to do to them this time.
ok, that was mostly sarcasm. but not entirely.
well, as i think we’ve both said before, not much looks very hopeful in the short term (or maybe even any other time frame). so, i’m just glad to see some sane people working on real problems and will talk it up if i have the chance.
way too much batshit crazy going on.
On another thread here yesterday, discussion centered on the reverse redling of economically depressed areas ,targeted precisely FOR their low incomes by mortgage brokers.[I think this fits in with the tone of this thread re: government corruption.]
I don’t know if many here are familiar with Catherine Fitts, but she knows that of which she speaks.
Here is a brief excerpt from a current piece for Global Research.ca________
The Fed Did Indeed Cause the Housing Bubble
by Catherine Austin Fitts
Global Research, March 22, 2009
[This text by Catherine Austin Fitts is a response to an article entitled “The Fed Didn’t Cause the Housing Bubble” by Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, published in the Wall Street Journal]
In his article on your opinion page, “The Fed Didn’t Cause the Housing Bubble,” Alan Greenspan attributes the housing bubble to lower interest rates between 2002 and 2005. That’s amazing to me.
My company served as lead financial advisor to the Federal Housing Administration between 1994 and 1997. I watched both the Administration and the Federal Reserve aggressively implement the policies that engineered the housing bubble.
From: “Sub-Prime Mortgage Woes Are No Accident” (http://solari.com/news/announcements/08-07-07/)
One of the dirty little secrets behind the housing bubble is the long standing partnership of narcotics trafficking and mortgage fraud and the use of the two in combination to target and destroy minority and poor communities with highly profitable economic warfare. This model is global. It is operating in counties throughout the world as well as in US communities.
Of all the actions that the Federal Reserve took to engineer this housing bubble, the one that I would note is Mr. Greenspan’s efforts to pacify Congresswoman Waters regarding allegations of government sponsored narcotics trafficking at a time when open Congressional hearings would have contributed to an important discussion of the operations engaging in mortgage fraud in minority communities.
See, “Financial Coup d’Etat,” Chapter 16, Dillon Read & the Aristocracy of Stock Profits which was written in 2005 and published in April 2006, drawing from an article I first published in May 1999.
“On December 18, 1997, the CIA Inspector General delivered Volume I of their report to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence regarding charges that the CIA was complicit in narcotics trafficking in South Central Los Angeles. Washington, D.C. ’s response was compatible with attracting the continued flow of an estimated $500 billion–$1 trillion a year of money laundering into the U.S. financial system. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in January 1998 visited Los Angeles with Congresswoman Maxine Waters — who had been a vocal critic of the government’s involvement in narcotics trafficking — with news reports that he had pledged billions to come to her district. In February Al Gore announced that Water’s district in Los Angeles had been awarded Empowerment Zone status by HUD (under Secretary Cuomo’s leadership) and made eligible for $300 million in federal grants and tax benefits.”
Alan Greenspan is a liar. The Federal Reserve and its long standing partner, the US Treasury, engineered the housing bubble, including the fraudulent inducement of America as part of a financial coup d’etat. Our bankruptcy was not an accident. It was engineered at the highest levels.
.
Catherine Austin Fitts is a former Assistant Secretary of Housing – Federal Housing Commissioner, Bush I administration.
Catherine Austin Fitts is a frequent contributor to Global Research.
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epu land but shit. bernhard takes this even more seriously than i do: The U.S. Is Losing Its Reserve Currency Privilege
if true it’s the price we may pay for our irresponsibility because like it or not our actions are seen as the primary cause of the crisis. doesn’t help that we pushed our version of financial deregulation down the throats of a lot of countries that didn’t want it.
In all the Congressional hearings I’ve watched realting to the meltdown/heist,only ONCE did I hear the Basel Accord mentioned.
I’ve never seen it mentioned on blogs.
Wkikpedia has a pretty good explanation and goes into further detail about the three pillars.
Here’s the basics:
Basel II is the second of the Basel Accords, which are recommendations on banking laws and regulations issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
The purpose of Basel II, which was initially published in June 2004, is to create an international standard that banking regulators can use when creating regulations about how much capital banks need to put aside to guard against the types of financial and operational risks banks face.
Advocates of Basel II believe that such an international standard can help protect the international financial system from the types of problems that might arise should a major bank or a series of banks collapse.
In practice, Basel II attempts to accomplish this by setting up rigorous risk and capital management requirements designed to ensure that a bank holds capital reserves appropriate to the risk the bank exposes itself to through its lending and investment practices.
Generally speaking, these rules mean that the greater risk to which the bank is exposed, the greater the amount of capital the bank needs to hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability.__________________________
The US signed on to these accords.
I feel such despair at our inability to “get through” to Obama on this issue.
It’s not just us “DFHs” standing at the gate, waving signs & yelling. We’re joined by some of the “respectables:” Krugman, Stiglitz, Reich, etc., and still Obama won’t listen or acknowledge.
David Schuster, in for KO tonight, had a snippy piece on this wherein he went down the list of “liberal critics” of Obama’s bail-out policies, but then he had the smarmy Craig Crawford “comment” and “analyze” that this was just a bunch of silly whiners.
What is it going to take? Are there Senators or House members who will pursue this? Is there anyone who “has Obama’s ear” who can present this?
It’s hard to recall when I felt such despair.
Don’t dispair, Mauimom. Regardless of Geithner’s delusion, the law of gravity cannot be repealed by a well placed NYT op/ed.
As an urban affairs afficionado, I’m concerned about the further collapse of property values as that will mean further devastation of the city coffers and loss of essential services.
What’s the solution, in simple terms I can comprehend, to present as an alternative when writing my CA senators and reps to stop the proposal dead in its tracks. Will FDL soon have language to use?
What are the republicans saying about the proposal? Are they in agreement with the stock market’s assumed affirmation?
Loved Maddows recent rogues gallery of the precursors of the present crisis.
Thanks again Scarecrow for the essay and evoking the dialogue that followed.
Blessings,
I used to believe that massive government fraud and corruption was something that took place behind the scenes. If anyone tried it in the light of day, they’d be summarily fired, publically vilified, and probably indicted. But Tim Geithner’s plan to remove toxic assets from the banking system is making it all respectable.
If you believe that, you really need to come out of your house more often.
Actual, real, professional working journalists know that this stuff happens all the time. We see it.
Have you ever actually covered a city council meeting and filed a story about it?
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