Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants to have the government lend up to a trillion dollars to hedge funds, private equity, funds and the banks themselves to clear their books of toxic assets. The plan implies a substantial subsidy to the banks. It is likely to result in the disposal of these assets at far above market value, with the government picking up the losses.
As much as we all want to help out the Wall Street bankers in their hour of need, taxpayers may reasonably ask whether this is the best use of our money. After all, the $1 trillion that is being set aside for this latest TARP variation is equal to 300 million SCHIP kid years. Congress has had heated debates over sums that were a small fraction of this size. To give another useful measuring stick, the Geithner plan could fund 1 million of the Woodstock museums that were the main prop of Senator McCain’s presidential campaign.
The core problem is that many of our big banks are bankrupt. If they had to acknowledge the losses that they have incurred on their housing related loans (and increasing their loans in commercial real estate) Citigroup, Bank of America, and many other large banks would be insolvent. Thus far, they have avoided reality by keeping these loans on their books at inflated prices.
The Geithner plan is an effort to rescue the banks by using government funding to prop up the price of these bad loans to levels that will allow the banks to stay solvent. It is not clear that the plan is big enough to accomplish this goal, but that is the basic intention. If it doesn’t work, then presumably Geithner will come out with another TARP permutation that involves giving the banks even more money.
There is an alternative. Rather than using government money to keep them alive, we could force the banks to go through a type of managed bankruptcy process like the one that is currently being proposed for General Motors and Chrysler.
Geithner has supposedly ruled out the bankruptcy option because when he, along with Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, tried letting Lehman Brothers go under last fall, it didn’t turn out very well. Of course, it is not necessary to go the route of an uncontrolled bankruptcy that Geithner and Co. pursued with Lehman.
The government could set up an arranged bankruptcy under which creditors have accepted conditions in advance. While this may not be easy to negotiate, the government does have enormous bargaining power in pursuing such a deal. The creditors (other than insured deposits, which will be paid in full) of these banks may end up with nothing if the government just let the banks sink.
The prospect of even an arranged bankruptcy of a major bank will undoubtedly shake up markets, but many safeguards have been put in place since the Lehman collapse. If the stock market goes down for a few weeks or months, who cares? Running the economy to serve the stock market is a sure recipe for disaster; if President Obama fixes the economy, the stock market will do just fine in the long run.
Anyhow, the Geithner crew insists that there are no alternatives to his plan; we have to just keep giving hundreds of billions of dollars to the banks. Perhaps Geithner is right. But before we throw such huge sums away, further enriching the bankers who wrecked the economy, maybe we should get a second opinion.
Suppose that Congress appropriated a modest chunk of money to have independent economists put together teams to construct alternative plans. Why not give M.I.T. professor Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, $5 million to hire a crew to outline his preferred path? Congress could give Joe Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner and one-time chief economist to President Clinton, who is also a harsh critic of the Geithner plan, a similar sum to put together his own team.
These economists could develop their best plans and put them out for public consumption. Geithner’s crew can then tell us why their plans are unworkable and we must instead hand over the money to banks.
Given how much money Geithner wants to spend — putting it in the hands of the folks that brought on this economic crisis — it would seem appropriate to first examine all the alternatives. After all, we could find out what our options are in this case for the price of just a few AIG executive bonuses. That has to be a good deal in anyone’s book.





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I think Willie Sutton’s aphorism (Asked why he robbed banks, Sutton replied, “Because that’s where the money is,”) needs to be modified.
Ask a bankster why they’re robbing the Treasury, and they’d better answer, “Because that’s where the money is.”
that is just such a great idea! brilliant!
especially the stiglitz part. i wonder, would that make summers’ head explode or make him work to come up with some better plans that he has to date?
.
can’t believe i’m quoting sachs again, but he’s thinking along the same lines, although not as comprehensively as dean:
oops. here’s the sachs link:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…..83499.html
This post covers some well travelled territory. What we have seen so far are not serious attempts to address the problems of the financial sector but a golden opportunity to loot the US Treasury and trash the nation’s credit, all to keep the house of cards/Ponzi scheme known as Wall Street going just a little bit longer. Paulson, Geithner, Summers, Rubin, the heads of the banks, the hedge funds, the private equity firms, these are the real nihilists and financial terrorists of our times. A plague of locusts would be benign and charitable in comparison.
Nor do I have any hope that they would listen now. We have been right and they have been wrong so many times before. If their object was to fix this mess, they would have started listening a long time ago. Instead what they want is to resurrect the same system which created the disaster in the first place.
” Flamboyant financier ‘Sir’ Allen Stanford expects to be indicted by a federal grand jury in the next two weeks, he told ABC News in an interview in which he cried, denied wrongdoing and threatened to punch his questioner in the mouth.
Stanford said the government action to seize his assets had left him with little money and few changes of clothing. He was forced to fly on a commercial plane for the first time in almost two decades after the government seized his fleet of six private jets.
Watch the full story tonight on World News with Charles Gibson at 6:30 p.m. ET. “
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/…..038;page=1
My hairs on fire. This is a rehash of the SnL bailout, except cubed in scale. It saves the pirate fleet and guarantees another caper by the sociopaths of Wall Street.
I’m disappointed that “managed bankruptcy” has entered the lexicon of our public discourse. All bankruptcies are managed.
But I do agree with the post, Geithner’s only interest is in keeping the current system in place and helping his Wall Street friends avoid losing any money. So, while the republicans are screaming about the “communism” of nationalizing banks, we’re actually acting more like the Soviet Union than realized by having the government pump unlimited capital into the banks and letting the politburos of Wall Street mismanage to their heart’s content.
Summers must go.
BTW this is cross-posted at trouthout.org
oops cross-posted here
The very idea!
The smarmiest guy in the room.
Sort of like Condi. But without her fashion sense.
It amazes me that Geithner et al all believe that there’s nothing wrong with the system itself, that by throwing money at the banks to cover their toxic assets the banks will begin lending money to the little people again so they can spend it at Sak’s Fifth Avenue and that the bailout will cause companies to hire hundreds of thousands of people, thereby rescuing the economy. Supply side economics. Deja vu all over again.
This monty python video has some current relevance or at least some humor. love the skull and cross bones with the daily stock chart superimposed.
And completely OT, but WTF:
You will pry my last WalMart contribution from my cold, dead slush fund.
Blanche “I’m Not Abe” Lincoln will courageously defends the oppressed owners
from the union thugs.
Digg is open
Washington and New York. Hopelessly Corrupt.
We need more than a second opinion on the financial system. We need second opinions on a Health Care System, and Election System, a Defense Systems, an Agriculture System, an Energy System to name but a few.
It seems a shorter list would be the name those “systems” which are working well.
Al of these “systems” are anchored by large corporations, resistant to change because capital is very conservative. They will continue until the fail, they are so change averse, refusing to face the most difficult decision of all, is to decide when to stop investing in yesterday’s successes.
Thanks for opening.
Dugg.
Thanks so much Prof. Baker.
yes we can (fill in here)________ – rob you blind,trash your currency, spy on you and many more to chose from.
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead,
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen’s “off with her head!”
Excellent post, Mr. Baker… thank you.
Will the Geithner plan work?
Forget about unfairness.
Will it work?
Great to see your pseudonym.
Here’s a bad idea, but I wondered if it had any traction in terms of
forcingincetivizing Congress to seriously consider Prof. Baker’s proposal.3200 N. 34th Street in Milwaukee is an address no one want wants any part of. It’s rife with layers of fraud and it is not worth even pennies on the dollar. It’s in the public record and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported on it. Could we use properties such as these as our “poison pills?” Ask for legislation that no federal dollars be used on securities that include properties such as these. The goal is that taxpayers only invest in the high quality assets, if the banks have any of those. Either we or our representatives have permissible purpose to examine the loan tapes, because of our previous loans to the money center banks.
OT, since at some level we have permissible purpose, we (I have no clue who has jurisdiction here) might be able to access information pretty much identical to the loan tapes from one of the three credit bureaus, Equifax, Trans Union, and Experion.
They sell products which disclose (or sell a score based on the data they hold) by name/address/social/gender/age/credit score/occupation/marital status/judgements/bankruptcies/tax liens/associated properties.
Again, all I’m looking for is a poison pill strategy to drive Congress towards Prof. Baker’s idea.
Yes, it will work great for huge private investors who are big enough to get in. Only the super rich can play. Geithner set it up so that out of every dollar they invest, they can only lose at most three cents on the dollar.
Tax payers on the other hand can lose up to 97 cents on each dollar we invest. We take all the risk, they skim all the profits.
It only works to concentrate the remaining pools of capital in an even smaller group. Then when the dollar collapses, they’ll own all the gold and commodities. It’s a rigged game from the start.
Here’s a superior explanation:
Another Giveaway the Sad Truth about the Geithner TALF Plan
Thanks!
Great post. Thank you.
Some items that caught my attention over the past week and maybe this is the place to post them:
It looks like there is still a lot of decline left for UBS?
http://www.businessweek.com/gl…..604862.htm
It looks like the Switzerland government bailed out this portion of the UBS toxic assets at 97 percent. Not much of a haircut. I think we may following the Swiss model.
http://investing.businessweek……=timestamp||04/03/2009%2010:02%20AM%20ET||headline||UBS%20completes%20%2438.7%20billion%20toxic%20asset%20transfer||docSource||AP%20Digital||provider||ACQUIREMEDIA&symbol=UBS
China objects to listing some nations that might be its tax havens as tax havens? Why?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl…..122659.htm
Foreign governments are having a lot of difficulties also. Where will the ripples hit?
If you want, you can post in more detail in FDL’s Oxdown Gazette.
We need to see some results…simple as that.
And I have a simple question: Where is Obama in all of this?
There’s ample questioning of the bank bailout going on (by, admirably, Profs Baker and Krugman, among others). The current plan is neither compellingly argued nor, apparently, likely to be effective.
So what’s Obama think about all of this? Is he bound to stand by Geithner for the moment? Is he–like people here in my hometown of Oakland have suggested–just a tool of the same capitalist “insurgency” against the working and middle classes that we’ve seen for the past half century?
Obama only works for the banksters.
What an economic collapse looks like – We’re next.
Scroll down to the video from Adrian Salbuchi and his warning regarding What Happened To Argentina – where he’s lived through three economic meltdowns. This video is in two parts – but if you want to see what actually occurred in Argentina just 6 years ago – keep watching after he’s finished:
http://bigdanblogger.blogspot……-2009.html
Connect ALL The Dots here:
http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/3820
The full conspiracy, revealed:
http://plungerspeaks.blogspot.com
Second opinion? FWIW, this is a hostage situation. The banksters are threatening to destroy the world economy unless we pay them. In such situations there are two options:
* pay the ransom demanded
* call in the SWAT team.
IMHO, the latter option is preferrable, especially so in this case.
lol. i agree: