The US Labor Department figures released today indicate that US employers have cut another 467,000 jobs in the month of June. For all the talk about ‘green shoots’ and ‘turning a corner’, employers are basically taking the position that they are going to survive by cutting personnel costs….again.
Since the ‘official’ beginning of the current crisis in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate is now at 9.5% and the average workweek is now down to 33 hours, the lowest level since records started being kept on this figure in 1964.
“Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, said that the loss of 6.5 million jobs since the start of the recession combined with the growth of the workforce means that the gains of the previous business cycle have been completely blown away.
"This is the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all jobs growth from the previous business cycle, a devastating benchmark for the workers of this country and a testament to both the enormity of the current crisis and to the extreme weakness of jobs growth from 2000-2007," said Shierholz in a statement.”
Just a couple of days ago, Michael Mandel of Business Week published an article showing that the last ten years have basically been one of job losses, not gains.
“Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector sector only rose by 1.1%, by far the lowest 10-year increase in the post-depression period.
It’s impossible to overstate how bad this is. Basically speaking, the private sector job machine has almost completely stalled over the past ten years.”
Here is what he says about today’s Labor Department report:
“1) Manufacturing jobs are falling at their fastest rate since 1946, down -12.2% over the past year.
2) Private sector jobs outside of manufacturing are also falling at their fastest rate since 1946, down -4.0% over the past year.
3) Manufacturing jobs are falling much faster than the rest of the private sector. In fact, the ‘excess’ job decline in manufacturing (the difference between -12.2% and -4.0%) is the largest since 1975.
4) The ten-year job growth in the private sector is down to only 559K jobs. At this rate, we will hit zero ten-year private job growth next month or the month after.”4 unfortunate facts
Let’s see now. If we basically have wiped out all the jobs that were created over the past ten years…and if there really wasn’t any true private sector growth during that period anyway, then we are truly in the s**tter. Krugman is right; if something big, bold and JOB stimulating is not done really fast, we will spend the next decade dribbling along, dying by inches.
When people don’t have jobs, then they don’t have money to spend. If they don’t spend money, the economy falls further. People who have jobs but who are afraid of losing them, won’t spend money either.
I’d like an effective stimulus package, please, because what’s been done so far (as has been discussed here many many times), has been pretty much..worthless – except for pumping money into banks that are now hoarding it. What we needed was a bold package – what we got was a bank bailout package, tax cuts (who spends tax cuts?), and the same crowd that got us into this mess in the first place running the program.
I’m talking to you, Paulson, Bernarke, Summers and Geithner.





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Which is to say most of us are still making believe that we haven’t been the victims of a criminal conspiracy.
Maybe I should state the problem differently?
Is there anyone out there who has any credible evidence that Paulson, Bernarke, Summers and Geithner are not involved in a conspiracy to defraud us?
Well, considering which entities have come out singing ‘Happy Days Are Here Again”, it’s hard to argue against your theory.
Yikes, Toby.
I actually don’t know many people – at least among those who pay attention – who don’t consider this a gigantic, broad-daylight highway robbery.
Good post, Toby! Rec.
Thanks, I was gone most of the day and would have put something up on this but now don’t have to. Just a couple of points 322,000 jobs were lost in May so the 467,000 loss in June shows that there is no ameliorating trend.
Big losers continued to be in manufacturing 136,000; construction 79,000; and professional and business services 118,000. All of these indicate that Obama’s stimulus is having little effect and that there are no real signs of increased economic activity in the sectors where you might expect such signs. Manufacturing jobs now account for only 9% of US employment. We have lost nearly 31% of American manufacturing jobs since January 2001. I would say that is a precipitous decline.
A jobless recovery is an oxymoron. If we had increased GDP without significantly increased employment, we would almost certainly be looking at another bubble.
We have lost 6.46 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. The economy also needs to produce around 120,000 jobs a month to cover natural population growth. We have been in recession for 19 months so that is another 2.28 million jobs that needed to be created since the recession began. So our current total jobs shortfall to date is 8.74 million jobs. I haven’t done the math recently but we would need at a guess $1-$1.5 trillion of pure stimulus a year, i.e. no tax cuts to deal with these job numbers and those coming down the road. Now you might think this is a lot of money but a trillion dollars is only 14.7% of the $6.788 trillion that the Bush and Obama Administrations have lavished so far on the financial sector to no discernible effect.
To be technical, it’s not a jobless recovery, but a continued loss of jobs. Whether there’s a “recovery” or not remains to be seen. My forecast is NOT.
Interesting that there are no longer “Things are getting better” quotes with unemployment news.
“Is there anyone out there who has any credible evidence that Paulson, Bernarke, Summers and Geithner are not involved in a conspiracy to defraud us?”
no. this is another installment of …….
“Green sprouts” talk is fading.
Yep..no one should be holding their breath..
In my previous work lives I was a Compensation Manager and a small business owner.
I’ve been watching this slow train to hell for a while now. Bubbles notwithstanding.
And now I’ve been unemployed for 2 years. “Overqualified” has become a profanity for me. And others I know.
This country has got to make some major, paradigm-shifting moves, health care reform is only the first.
I’ve seen internal economists’ reports that suggest there are scenarios which indicate the possibility that double digit unemployment through 2016 or so is a real possibility – and this assumes that the stimulus is successful. More realistically, we’re talking about 2 to 3 years for unemployment to get down to the 6% range. GDP, however, will likely start growing again by 4th quarter of this year or 1st quarter next year.
I’ve been watching the slomo suicide of the U.S. economy over medical expenses since 1992, when I first wrote about it on Wall St. Now see fastmo disintigration of economy, since Ds have no backbone to do anything significant about it.
So, no matter what..it comes down (and this is my natural bent here, ok) to how people are going to manage over the next 2-5 years.
Newly laid-off person #467,001 reporting for DFH duty, sirs and ma’ams!
Arrrrgh. What’s your plan?
Unfortunately.. yes. For many there just isn’t any relief in sight, even though the economy will improve. It’ll just do so very very slowly… which means another big jump for productivity numbers without a corresponding improvement in people’s lives. I wish I could offer more hope here, but I really can’t in good faith. The economy is fixable and will fix itself, barring still more stupidity from our leaders, but the predicament of the American worker will stay broken.. this time.
Thanks, Toby. Mainly been reducing costs, and budgeting like a mofo. We should be good for quite a while this way, barring any major unforeseeables.
Sorry to hear that. Can I ask what your job was?
Yeah like yesterday! I for one had been in IT (Windows System Administrator) got laid off on 9/21 and over the next 3 years had all of TWO yep two interviews!! I gave up after sending out thousands of resumes. I Finally decided to advertise on Craigs List and at least had some money each money to contribute to our household! These last 10 years have been a major drain on all of our resources!! We need a major stimulus not this fucking piece meal crap we have been feed!!!
aaaaw!
Thanks Toby. How exactly is this a recovery?
This is a recovery in the same way that if you take your hands and press them together but instead of having the fingertips point up, you point them toward the floor..you get the opposite of what you pray for. I find the whole ‘recession/depression/recovery’ hair splitting to be sort of useless since all that appears to be happening (’green shoots’ and ‘turn around’ and ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ notwithstanding)is that employers are still laying people off; banks are still NOT making loans to businesses or consumers, and the economy is rapidly grinding to a screeching halt. And like any engine – once it is rusted into place, it will take a whole lot more lubricating than we’ve seen to start the wheels turning.
So what’s Obama’s role in the heist. Complicit or naive?
Sure, thanks for asking. I’m an extremely specialized software engineer, working in computer music. Actually I don’t even really write code any more, instead I sit on standards development committees whipping up new file formats, protocols, etc. for digital music, with folks from other companies. Did mention extremely specialized?
Thanks, gw. It could be worse, I’d been at the company for 10 years and was wanting a break. And they’re treating me decently considering. Looks like I get a real summer vacation this year!
I think that if Obama gave everybody $1 million dollars in the US (that would be, like, 300 million times 1 million which I think is 3 trillion) then all the baby boomers could retire and then all the people unemployed could take over their jobs and everybody would have money for health care and could buy a house which would stimulate the economy….I can dream can’t I?
And a pony. Never forget the pony.
A trillion is 10^12. A million is 10^6 so a million million would be 10^12 or a trillion. So giving 3 million people a million dollars would be $3 trillion. Giving 300 million a million would be $300 trillion.
In California welfare recipients are getting IOU’s. That’s Arnold’s budget cut mentality.
I would just like for someone to fess up to why the US economy is in the Crapper. Sure the 10 years of idiocy from the mortgage idiots, GEICO, GM and Chrysler have taken quite a toll. But all of this would have been just a bump in the road IF US businesses, in collusion with US government, had not been “Off Shoring” thousands and thousands of jobs. Not just bottom feeder jobs like those taken by the illegal immigrants, but jobs that actually pay a living wage, like Information Technology, tax preparation, tech support. These jobs are now filled by people in India and the Philipines that have little or no experience of any sort. (Shit, they only have electricity occasionally and toilet? What’s a toilet?) Someone needs to inform the US corporate heads (and their government lackeys) that if your neighbors economy sucks, yours can’t be far behind. I believe that this is the original “Piss in the Whiskey” that has put the economy where it is today. Maybe we need to levy a special tax that extracts $100,000 in taxes for every $50,000/Yr job that they “Off Shore”.
The stimulus wasn’t (in my opinion) to create new jobs in the traditional way. It was to patch the leaking boat, so significant work could be done on it.
I’m still waiting to hear banks are lending and borrowers are asking for money. Has the credit market been properly fixed or not? If it’s still not working, then what reform is absolutely needed now to get it going?
Reforming health insurance will save a lot of people money and help avoid so many bankruptcies. That’s great, but it’s not entirely clear how the reform will affect jobs numbers.
I feel we need something more direct like Green Revolution growth — but that still seems to be slow starting because of the recession.
Similarly, the mess in California (Republicans!) is holding down a large part of the economy.
Getting out of Iraq will help, but that’s on a schedule we aren’t rushing to change…at least not yet.
We’re stepping on our own feet, so we can’t run.
We need to get out of Iraq, fix California’s crisis, do health insurance reform, start the Green Revolution and pass financial industry regulations…all at once.
Housing bubble fallout.
In my area, the figure for selling a house was that the ‘food chain’ involved was something like 28 people for every home sold. That doesn’t include commercial properties.
So ad sales, realtors, home renovations, carpet, plumbing, pest inspection, title insurance agents, etc, etc… all in those figures, IMHO.
Until someone in DC wakes up and realizes that far too much of the ’service sector’ was related to selling houses, and that those jobs weren’t exactly highly skilled — and won’t be coming back, nor did many of them function as economic innovations (well, except for bogus mortgages), we got trouble.
Republicans are definitely the anchor on current events, slowing everything (to a halt if they can). They think that if they can screw things up and blame it on Dems, then they can get back into office.
Idiots.
Some of these jobs are actually probably best done through electric utilities. Others through home renovation projects.
But I agree with your entire synopsis, FWIW.
Which makes it all the more important to follow what Matt Taibbi is saying about the BushCheneyGoldmanSachs administration, and how their economic activities were based on market manipulation via control of government.
Just like GHWB and his buddies started in place in Phase I of ‘globalization’; control government agencies and regulatory mechanisms. Then offshore your obscene profits while telling your ‘voters’ they can’t afford health care.
Ah, elites are so clever…
Seconded.
You mean…instead of subsidizing the corporations taking the jobs and American technology (usually paid for by the taxpayers)???
Why, that would approach SOCIALISM!
And to MarkH @ 34
If this keeps up, there won’t BE a country to “rule”
Wait’ll “healthcare reform” hands US over to the insurance corporations. We may actually GET single payer out of it, cause nobody will have jobs for their “mandated” insurance buying “option”.
We’re being looted right in front of our eyes and nobody is seeing it. I think Americans are still stuck in the myth that this is still “the wealthiest country in the world”.
Meanwhile, we’re still sinking the rest of what we’ve got into Iraq and Afghanistan. Crikey!
Shock Doctrine time
Aren’t we already left of Socialism? If so, wouldn’t approaching it would be the proper direction!!??