Republicans have a neat explanation for the credit crash: it was all those loans to poor people to buy houses. We know this is far from the truth, and that the real problem is rich people who couldn’t afford to pay off their loans, like AIG and Lehman Bros. The debt figures at the failed commercial and investment banks are staggering, in the range of hundreds of billions. AIG couldn’t even state its exposure was to its credit default swaps on Lehman Bros. debt two weeks ago. Actually, it’s even worse: one of the reasons AIG and Lehman Bros. can’t pay off their loans is that they paid out so much money to their employees on phony income from leverage at unprecedented levels, and more to their shareholders in dividends and stock repurchases.
Even so, there is no doubt that many middle income people are wildly overextended. How much blame should go to them?
Rich people and businesses borrow money for leverage, and as a way of reducing their own capital at risk. If the interest rate on a loan is less than the expected return from the use the borrower plans for the money, after taxes, then they might as well borrow, rather than front their own money. Middle income people borrow for other reasons.
The most common reason to borrow is to buy a house or a car. The rationale is that major purchases aren’t consumed all at once, so it makes some sense to pay for them over some period of time. After all, people expect that they will be making more money in the future, so they can reasonably think that the monthly payment we can afford today will be a smaller percentage of their income in the future. Similarly, people might borrow for big purchases, appliances, or home improvements, or for a vacation, with the idea of paying it off quickly. So far, so good.
But what happens when things go wrong? Lose a job? Someone in the family get sick when there isn’t insurance, or the insurance is insufficient? Divorce, and suddenly there are two households with single incomes? Well, the same thing happens. People just assume things will get better, so they borrow. They borrow from their 401(k), their credit card, their house. And it works out if, and only if, things do get better.
But if they don’t? What if the entire economy goes in the tank. What if there’s a decade in which the average wage stagnates, or even trickles down. Well, that is today’s situation: too many people who borrowed and cannot pay. Who’s to blame? Not the person who reasonably believed things would get better. After all, they had all kinds of people, cheerleaders from the Republican party, telling them the fundamentals of the economy were strong. Their decision was sensible in the context of the times. They had years of expecting wage and salary increases, and a financial edifice that made borrowing seem perfectly natural. They had role models succeeding by borrowing. They had And they had that good old American optimism.
How does it happen that wages are stagnant for a decade? The old deal was that capital and labor shared the gains from productivity, but that broke down. Now Wall Street and its government cronies don’t want us to look behind that screen to see the people who brought that to pass. They point us to the poor borrowers. It’s their fault, not that of the rich or their government.
Of course there are some people who tried to manipulate the easy debt for their own benefit, and others who piled up the credit cards, getting a new one every now and then to pay off the old ones. And there were speculators buying condos and flipping them to other speculators, none of them expecting actually to inhabit their purchases. But far and away the largest number of borrowers were regular folks, just trying to live the way they thought others did.
Of all the hypocrisy we’ve seen in the last eight years, the toads on Wall Street stand at the top. They sold ridiculous securities to their credulous peers. They only made money by selling, and they needed products to sell, so they encouraged the incompetent mortgage companies and the hucksters and the cheats. They bought legislators and regulators and an entire administration, and got rid of the entire regulatory structure. They managed to buy enough influence to get the bankruptcy amendments of 2005. They got the government to cut their taxes, leading to massive deficits. When their rickety structure began to fail, they ranted about moral hazard for individual borrowers, but they still had enough influence to step into the legislature with the threat of the neutron bomb of financial disaster, and panic our legislature into sucking money from the middle class to bail them out.
They keep their money and you get the blame.





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Well, I suspect that it’s human nature to believe our own p.r., but clearly there were a lot of things wrong in the Wall Street culture. My brief forays around a small splinter of the Dot Com bubble left me with the view that when people are making more money (ON paper), they spend like idiots. Suddenly, they’re the smartest people ever born!
The smart, grounded people were able to see they were in a bubble, even if they couldn’t figure out all the details nor foresee when it would pop. The arrogant, the egoists, and those whose identities were completely tied up with their work got a wake-up call.
But I’ll say this for the software industry — when the tech bubble burst, they didn’t expect everyone else to bail out their sorry asses, nor did they run whining to the government to basically cover their ‘leveraged’ (at 30:1) debt.
In that respect, I have far more respect for some jerks from the Dot Com era than I have for anyone on Wall Street (and 90% of Congress) these days. The absolute gutlessness and inability to take responsibility for this mess (or share it with Paulson — THE LAST person who should be dealing with it) is disgusting.
I don’t see that anything other than legal charges and bankruptcy are going to jolt these people back to the world as the rest of us know it. Am I wrong…?
Thanks massacio.
digg
readerOfTeaLeaves: Well said, especially your last paragraph. We need to push to open of the courts to challenge the CEO, CFO, and others, who screwed the public. This might do more to reduce this kind of riskiness, as money was their prime motivation. And with bloggers like FDL who are lawyers, there is a good chance we can do this by letting the public know just how BAD they really got fleeced out of their money. Translated, we need the public’s anger to change the system.
Thank you for saying this, Masaccio. The one thing that I don’t hear from the blamers is the fact that American’s wages have not kept pace and have even decreased–relative to our parents’ incomes. People cannot survive on one income anymore–whether you are single or married. And if you have any health issues that prevent you from being able to work two jobs (a full time and at least a part-time), you’re screwed.
roTL, I like your comparison between the dotcom people and the financial people. I do think the financial people did so much more harm to a major institution that bailout of some kind was necessary, but as I have written before, we aren’t holding enough of them responsible, and probably never will.
I just want the fraud uncovered. I want to make it clear to the american people that these people violated the laws while servicing my loan, charging me property inspection fees (and never came by my house), so fearless that they just say “miscellaneous fees” on my statement of 3000.00$ with no explanation for what they are. That they don’t return phone calls or inquiries. That they have destroyed my credit. That they have applied my payments to fees instead of interest and principle. That they jacked with my escrow account.
Someone needs to know and close the loop holes that prevent the real victims here from getting restitution for their suffering.
Look bottom line if I went to buy a car and there was a Honda Accord and a Corvette I’m going to buy the Accord because that is what I can afford. No car dealer would be able to talk me into getting the Corvette. Same with a house I would not be going into a bank trying to get a mortgage for a home I couldn’t afford. So yes these were bad lending decisions from the lenders, and we should not have to bail them out. But bottom line these people were ignorant to there own current financial status to do it. I’m sorry they could come to my house all day long and offer me mortgages I couldn’t afford and I would keep shutting the door. They are not victims.
Did you even read the article. I could afford my home. Tell me could you afford a payment three times what the orignal payment was? Could you go from a mortgage of 1000.00$ a month to 1800.00 a month? I do not have a flexible rate mortgage. I was two months behind when my ex who regularly paid child support for 10 years, quit paying suddenly one month with no warning. I fell behind because there were 400.00$ in check charges and fees when his check was not there to make the automatic payments that come out of my account. I was able to resolve this problem very quickly and did. However, once I was two months late they put me into foreclosure and began assessing fees. Literally thousands in fees.
They have to follow the laws. I didn’t agree to this. I didn’t know this. It’s not on the contract I signed and they are violating laws on the books in doing this.
I didn’t buy a house I can’t afford. I have never missed another payment since then. In 5 years.
You don’t get it, you don’t want to get it. You believe the t.v and you refuse to listen to the facts. They are committing fraud. It’s illegal to do what they do. The FDIC is overwhelmed and unable to fight them.
Please note that my discussion starts with the premise that the borrower could afford the payments at the time the loan was made. For car buyers, assuming that the normal run had continued, the payment would be a smaller and smaller part of their paycheck as time went by and they got raises. For homebuyers, if their incomes had gone up, they would likely have been able to make higher payments as the note adjusted to a higher rate.
Incomes did not go up. They stagnated. People lost jobs. People get sick and their insurance doesn’t cover the costs. Is any of this their fault? If you think so, you are a tougher than I am.
OT. obama’s grandmother is dying and he’ll be suspending his campaign for 24 hours.
Am I the only one who thinks Sarah Palin is nothing more than a deliberate distraction by the Bush wall street/ corporate repubs, (and some dems, including Mr. Dimon, and if he becomes treasury secy i’ll kill myself with a rock), so they can complete their now blatant looting of the People’s treasury? This has been a quiet theft until recently, but a theft just the same. A crime is being committed on television before the entire nation, and no one seems to give a damn, all buying the same crap we heard after 911 and before shocknawe.
They’ve looted the treasury, and now we’re all broke, and broken.
It’s fascinating to see revisionist history being written in real time.
Unfortunately for the neo-Stalinists at the WSJ and Cato Institute,
too many remember what really happened, and the names and addresses of the culprits.
Best thing I’ve seen on this is Democracynow’s interview with former asst treasury secy Paul Craig Roberts on Oct. 17. Guy told it like it was, called the bailout fascistic. And he worked for Raygun!
KO’s rockin and hotly!
Sorry to be OT but has anyone heard about Obama’s grandmother being hospitalized and he’s off the campaign trail Thurs., Fri.?
Never confuse a bull market with brains.
Very sad if true. Time for everyone to pick up the slack.
Salon says he will make an appearance in Indiana and then leave for Hawaii. She is seriously ill at 86.
Life events. Sarah Palin vaunted her unmarried daughter’s pregnancy as a campaign event, while Obama & Biden appropriately regard these family events as personal matters. Too bad no one will notice the difference.
gramm had lots of help. don’t forget rubin and summers and levitt and all the other folks in the clinton administration and in congress (of both parties).
Just a few old clippings from the World Economic Forum in Davos the past 2 years . . . the full story, if ever written, will take volumes.
http://www.weforum.org/en/even…../index.htm
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman and Professor, Roubini Global Economics, warned that the risk of a US slowdown was real and identified its housing recession as a major warning sign.
The debate then moved on to address the question of how much a US slowdown would affect the rest of the world. Jacob A. Frenkel, Vice-Chairman, American International Group, observed that there is now an inbuilt stability to the world economic system and that the significance of a US slowdown to the global economy is reduced.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi…..tics/print
A theme at both this and other sessions was concern about overvaluation in asset markets, and the extraordinary growth of the sophisticated financial instruments known as ‘credit derivatives’.
In theory, the financial markets are now ’spreading’ or ‘parcelling out’ risk. But Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, warned: ‘There is now such creativity of new and very sophisticated financial instruments… that we don’t know fully where the risks are located. We are trying to understand what is going on, but it is a big, big challenge.’
This is a serious admission from a cautious central banker who does not like rocking boats, and there was an echo of his concern about the financial markets in remarks made to the annual dinner of the Society of Business Economists in London last week by Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy. He was worried that the markets had become so good at ‘tranching risk’ that they believed the risk was not there.
http://www.weforum.org/en/know…..SUMM_22910
25 Jan 08
Panellists noted the big disconnect in the way the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) were originated, sold and regulated. They were originated by institutions not under the oversight of the banking regulators, sold by banks that did not originate the assets, and bought by investors who were not experienced in monitoring any deterioration in the value of the securities.
http://www.weforum.org/en/know…..SUMM_23263
24 Jan 08
The collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage sector has once again raised the spectre of systemic risk – the possibility that volatility in one area of the capital markets could spread to others, creating a crisis that central banks might find impossible to control. While the current turmoil has not reached such extremes, it clearly has called into question the adequacy of existing risks controls. However, several participants noted, it also creates a risk that proposed cures – such as tighter regulation – will be worse than the disease.
The fault does not lie with the explosive growth of derivative instruments such as credit default swaps, nor with the repackaging of loans and other assets into securities with differing risk characteristics – even though both products were centrally involved in the sub-prime meltdown, argued Wes Edens, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Fortress Investment, USA. . . . Edens traced the origins of the crisis to the fact that instruments developed to help investors hedge risk were increasingly used for speculative purposes, often by investors who did not fully understand the products they were buying. In the ensuing panic, many investors were dismayed to find that mortgage securities rated AAA (the highest investment grade rating) were suffering losses of 80% or more. This, he said, had a crushing effect on investor confidence.
Yeah, if I bought something labeled “AAA” (and not obviously to get first listing in the Yellow Pages), I’d sort of expect something less than 80% loss. So yeah, I guess my confidence would be crushed. My fault for not fully understanding the product.
He did, indeed.
But Gramm’s last minute 200+ page addition to a bill in Dec. 2000 was the match that
blew up a $2 trillion CDS market to a $62 trillion one.
I’ve got a close personal example of the bind: Middle-age couple with grown kids. Dual income, so in essence, they’re DINKs. Their mortgage payment is relatively high, but with two incomes, they can afford it.
Then the husband dies. Now the mortgage doesn’t look so good to the widow. She “gives” the house to her grown, married daughter with two kids. That’s OK, for a while, because Hu & Wi again have two incomes. But then their marriage falls apart. Divorce. Dad becomes a deadbeat Dad, doesn’t pay his alimony. Now daughter has more house than she can afford. So, she should sell the house, and get something more affordable, right? But before she can do that, the housing bubble bursts, and all of a sudden she’s got negative equity. Now what the heck is she supposed to do?
Bob in HI
how exactly did gramm add that into the omnibus bill when he wasn’t even on the conference committee (as far as i can tell). i’d seriously like to know because i’ve heard that story before but i can’t find anything in the public record to support it. not saying it isn’t there – i may miss it and i still haven’t gone through everything that i’d like to. but for as many times as i’ve read that, i’d think there ought to be some evidence to back it up?
and how about all the congress critters who went ahead and voted for it anyway? no one made congress vote for the bill or clinton sign it. didn’t they support it too?
gramm certainly worked for several years to keep otc derivatives unregulated, but he wasn’t the only one by a long shot.
but more than that, i don’t think it was the match. lots of stuff happened before that to keep otcs deregulated, and even if that bill had not made it into law, it’s unlikely they would be regulated now.
not a clue. what you describe seems to me the reason we have bankruptcy laws – so people hit with by personal disasters can have a chance to start again.
I am not an expert on this. But you can find some coverage of Gramm’s involvement in articles
by David Corn and Justin Fox.
i hadn’t read the time article before, thanks for the link. fox has some of it right, and he doesn’t say who in the conference committee agreed to the change (which i think is better than blaming it all on gramm). and he notes how it was bipartisan. all that is close to how i see it.
but the time line is wrong. born worked to reconsider otc derivative regulation long before ltcm’s demise. i’ll try and get my act together and post a diary on it soon.
corn’s piece i have read previously. it reads to me like propaganda. mostly true, but missing a bunch that doesn’t fit with his narrative. and i don’t see how this statement is true (there’s other stuff i disagree with, but this is the big one):
how did gramm slip it in when he wasn’t even on the committee? and since the senate couldn’t be bothered to even look at what they were voting on (the senate passed the the bill one hour after it was reported out of committee and before it had even been brought to the senate floor) – how can anyone blame gramm for the senators not even pretending to do their job?
there may be a lot more to the behind the scenes story – and if so, i’d love to know it.