Oil industry analysts have estimated that there may be as much as a billion barrels or more of oil in the reservoir below BP’s Macondo Well. If the well is leaking at the so far maximum estimated rate of 100,000 barrels per day, and there are 1 billion barrels of oil in the reservoir, then determining how long the well could leak if it is not plugged is a simple high school mathematics level calculation.
One billion barrels divided by 100,000 barrels per day equals 10,000 days, or a continuous leak of 100,000 barrels per day for 27.39 years if the well is not plugged, to empty the reservoir into the Gulf of Mexico.