I don’t really have a lot of use for conventional wisdom. In the first place it is not really very wise, more like moderately informed. Second relying on it makes one intellectually lazy. When you have this back log of anecdotal evidence which shows a patter, you tend to rely on that pattern. This leaves you open to making a prediction that misses the new variables and then being surprised by the result. The 2002 elections where a little like that. That CW (admittedly supported by 100 years of history) was that the Republicans would lose some seats in first midterm of the Bush 41 presidency.

We all know that the results not even close. The combination of the 9/11 attacks and the Republican continued fear mongering and, frankly, some pretty shrewd political maneuvers led them to re-take the Senate and widen their majority in the House. If you look at the indicators, the CW says that Republicans should be able to win many seats in both the House and Senate this year.

"Originally posted at Squarestate.net"

For the fist time the President has a higher disapproval rating than approval. The generic Congressional ballot is giving the Republicans a slight advantage of 1.8%. The unemployment rate is persistently in the high 9% range and nothing, even a massive jobs bill (which is not going to happen) is going chance that before election day. All of these things are conditions that could lead to a rout like we saw in 1994.

However, the Republicans have a gigantic problem. They are ugly. I am not talking about their personal appearance, but the face of what they represent. One of the knocks (and the knocks are legion) against the Republican Party is that they are mean and heartless. They were able to move this meme to being strong and tough during the early days of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. The thinking was that we needed warriors, and warriors are hard men and women, they aren’t always going to take the time to be nice, they are defending the country after all.

Rahm Emanuel appeared today on ABC’s “This Week,” and he had some unflattering words for Joe Barton and the Republican Party concerning their attotude toward BP.

Discussion of Rand Paul as Not Quite Ready for Prime Time

There’s more to be said about the Rand Pauls insulting suggestion that skilled, unemployed folks should just suck it up and settle for whatever lower-paying job they can get. What I wrote before doesn’t fully expose his moral and intellectual poverty.

The folks at Kentucky’s BlueGrass Politics catch Rand Raul lecturing the unemployed in his state that they just need a dose of tough love. He original idea: Work for lower wages.

Rand Paul, the Republican senate candidate in Kentucky, is a freewheeling libertarian. Instead of getting some fancy board-certification as an ophthalmologist, Paul decided to “go Galt” and make up his own credentials. Paul founded the National Board of Ophthalmology, ostensibly to certify doctors as qualified eye specialists.

MSNBC’s new documentary “Rise of The Right” is another attempt by the corporate media to stem the rising influence of anti-establishment figures.

Rand Paul thinks we should force the US to balance its budget, even in the middle of a recession with massive unemployment. If his fiscal and economic recommendations were followed, it would tank Kentucky’s and the US economy and put millions of people out of work across the US.

This article portrays the forces of the white, reactionary right who are trying to turn back the clock on civil rights in this country.

The Libertarian GOP Congressman From Texas Cast the Sole ‘No’ Vote on a 2004 Resolution Celebrating the 40th Anniversary of the Landmark 1964 Anti-Discrimination Law; Meanwhile, in Interview on Russian TV, Rand Paul Calls For Stripping Illegal Immigrants’ American-Born Children of Their Constitutionally-Protected Birthright of U.S. Citizenship