Shake Up in the West Virginia Senate Race

By: Wednesday September 22, 2010 2:39 am

Favored West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin is finding himself playing catchup to GOP challenger John Raese, in the midst of a recent PPP Poll.

Mollohan Lashes out, the Tea Party is Lacking Clout, and Manchin Definitely Not Out

By: Tuesday August 10, 2010 1:05 pm

West Virginia’s First Congressional District, Senate Special Election Race, and a bit more

Rasmussen: Support For Offshore Drilling Reaches New Low

By: Thursday July 22, 2010 7:13 am

New data shows that support for offshore drilling has reached its lowest level ever in Rasmussen’s latest polling. Here’s how the GOP-friendly pollster** frames the latest data (emphasis mine):

With the deepwater oil leak apparently capped after three months of gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, support for both offshore oil drilling and drilling further out in deepwater remains largely unchanged. Most voters also remain concerned about the potential environmental impact of new drilling.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of U.S. Voters now believe offshore oil drilling should be allowed, while 26% oppose it. One-in-five voters (19%) are undecided.

That’s down from 60% last month. Since the oil rig explosion that caused the massive oil leak, support for offshore drilling has ranged from 56% to 64%.

Predictably, Rasmussen leaves most of the useful information out of their analysis. In their polling immediately prior to the rig explosion in the Gulf, 72% of likely voters supported offshore drilling. Even with Rasmussen’s skewed likely voter model, this represents a 16% shift in just 11 weeks. The current level of support among likely voters, 56%, is the lowest ever recorded by Rasmussen for this question. Moreover, support among Democrats for offshore drilling has dropped from 54% in early April to just 29% in the latest poll. Support among Republicans remains relatively flat, down just 4%. GOP support for offshore drilling, at 82%, is actually up 8% from its low point in late May.

Who are the 22% of Americans Who View BP Favorably?

By: Thursday June 3, 2010 11:00 am

Citing a Rasmussen poll Greg Sargent took note of yesterday, which indicated that 22% of Americans currently have a favorable view of BP, Barbara Morrill at Daily Kos asks who these 22% of Americans are.

Using the crosstabs from the poll (premium account required), I put together this chart to answer Barbara’s question:

Those most likely to view BP favorably are, respectively: Republicans, Conservatives, American Over Age 65, Whites and Males. Those least likely to view BP favorably are, respectively: Liberals, Blacks, Democrats, Americans Between the Ages of 18-29 and Females.

Interestingly, the demographics of those most likely to view BP favorably lines up closely with the demographics of those who supported offshore drilling in early April, prior to the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. An analysis I conducted on April 8th found that offshore drilling was most popular among Republicans, the Elderly, Whites and Wealthy Americans.

On BP favorability, a few key statistics stick out:

  • Conservatives are four times more likely to view BP favorably as Liberals are
  • Republicans are more than twice as likely to view BP favorably as Democrats are
  • Whites are nearly twice as likely to view BP favorably as Blacks are

Meanwhile, BP’s CEO Tony Hayward is busy thanking the United States for its strong support of the company.

Below, I’ve broken down the crosstabs by the six criteria Rasmussen provided data for.

With No Exit Polls, The “Why?” For Dem. Coakley’s Senate Defeat Gets Spun

By: Wednesday January 20, 2010 1:32 pm

One of the most vexing revelations to come from last night’s Senatorial contest in Massachusetts was the fact there were NO EXIT POLLS. NONE! Not a single news organization conducted exit polls to ascertain a “why?” for such a huge, significant upset.

obama’s poll numbers are falling, if you don’t count obama’s poll numbers

By: Friday March 13, 2009 7:40 pm

the wall street journal ignores half a poll to prove with the other half that obama is not doing well.

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