Seven to one; that is the score in Democrats v Republicans in special elections since the start of the 111th Congress. For all of the talk about the Republicans having a structural advantage this cycle, for all the breathless reportage about the Tea Party movement (which, thanks to Rupert Murdoch and Faux News has always been far out of proportion to their actual size and importance) the fact remains that when given a choice the American people have chosen seven out of eight times to elect a Democrat.
I have been saying all along that the conventional wisdom about mid-term elections and the desire for to punish the party in power in bad economic times is over stated in this cycle. Looking at it from strictly a CW point of view we should not have the result that we are seeing at the polls.
"Originally posted at Squarestate.net"
Take a look at the outcome in the Pennsylvania 12th Congressional district. While Rep. Jack Murtha held this seat 36 years, the district can only be defined as a swing district. It is the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004, but then voted for John McCain in 2008 (maybe they have a thing for candidates with the first name John, but it is more likely that it is trending conservative). If there really is a wave of discontent with the Democrats in Congress this should have been a seat that the Republicans could win and win handily.